Torrential rains and the onset of Cyclone Komen triggered severe and widespread floods and landslides in July and August 2015 across 12 out of 14 states and regions in Myanmar. An estimated 1.6 million individuals were recorded as having been temporarily displaced from their homes by the disaster, a
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nd 132 lost their lives. Up to 5.2 million people were exposed to the floods and landslides in the 40 most heavily affected townships. Within the 40 most-affected townships, 775,810 individuals have been displaced, accounting for approximately half of the total displaced population.
The Project recognizes that although the major target disaster is cyclones, the methodology of the Project activities to enhance the capacity of EWS, HRD and CBDRM is also applicable to mitigate the damage of floods. By analyzing the results of a survey based on the experience of the Project activities, the Project can contribute to describe tangible lessons learned and future recommendations for the counterpart agencies and disaster management related agencies of the Government of Myanmar.
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This Case Study explores flood forecasting systems from the perspective of its position within the flood warning process. A method for classifying the different approaches taken in flood forecasting is introduced before the elements of a present-day flood forecasting system are discussed in detail.
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Finally, the state of the art in developing flood forecasting systems is addressed including how to deal with specific challenges posed.
The target group of this case study are decision makers in disaster risk management and/or water management. The case study should help to understand some hydrologic basics of the flood forecast and assist in the administration and implementation of an appropriate flood warning system in a specific environment, to find the best solution for a region.
Best solutions depend mainly on quality and availability of data, the areas and/or points of interest, catchment properties, cross border catchments, and financial capabilities with special consideration of flood forecast.
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Zimbabwe has, over the years, grappled with the repercussions of the climate crisis, which have led to erratic rainfall patterns characterized by either severe floods or prolonged periods of drought. The nation has experienced a concerning trend of
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numerous regions reporting rainfall levels below the usual during what should be "normal" years. The upcoming El Niño event forecasted for 2023-2024, which is associated with drier-than-average rainfall, is poised to exacerbate this predicament. It is expected to intensify aridity, significantly impacting food and animal production across many areas, including those typically classified as "dry regions."
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With the increase in frequency of disasters, there is a need to improve early warning systems (EWS) for EA to reduce the risks faced by children and their families. As a consequence, the term early warning, early action (EWEA) has become increasingly common among those responding to slow-onset disas
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ters.
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Emergency assistance needs are anticipated to be atypically high through 2019/20 lean season.
The 2018/19 rainy season was marked by a delayed start of season, below average rainfall, early cessation of rains, and heavy late season
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rainfall and flooding associated with Tropical Cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth.
In most of the south, rainfall was delayed and erratic resulting in a reduction of area planted as well as poor germination, crop establishment, and multiple planting attempts. Additionally, mid-season dryness resulted in poor cropping conditions along with permanent wilting and crop failure in localized areas.
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PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also
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one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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The report covers possible developments in Indonesia over the next 10 months (to end 2016). Four scenarios are outlined:
Delayed Second Crop Harvest
Delayed and Reduced Second Crop Harvest
La Niña disrupts main rural sources of income
Soaring rice prices
The scenarios wer
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e developed during a two-day workshop in Jakarta, Indonesia involving 21 organisations. Scenarios are a description of situations that could occur; a set of informed assumptions about a development that may require humanitarian action to support strategic planning, create awareness, provide early warning and promote preparedness activities for those responding to the crisis.
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Pakistan, one of the countries that is most vulnerable to climate change, received more than three times its usual rainfall in August 2022. Torrential rains and flash-flooding began in early July 2022, severely damaging living areas, schools and oth
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er communal buildings in refugee villages and host communities. Unprecedented and unrelenting rainfall and flooding in late August 2022 worsened the already fragile humanitarian situation. Nearly 1,700 people are reported to have died, and over 12,800 were injured, including at least 4,000 children
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Update - 27 June 2018
During the reporting week, the monsoon rains brought 252 mm of rainfall compared to 95 mm during the previous week. The downpour caused 65% of the week’s weather-related incidents (i.e. landslides, wind-storms and floods
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). Three rain gauges were installed in Chakmarkul (near Camp 21), Camp 16 and Kutupalong, complementing existing rain gauges in Cox’s Bazar and Teknaf, as well as the Meteorological Station installed by Samaritan Purse in Camp 12. This network of rain gauges provides localized rainfall data at regular intervals throughout the day, which will allow the humanitarian community to better monitor, anticipate and respond to developments within the camps. Relocation of families at risk of landslides and flooding continued; a total of some 200 families have already moved to Camp 20 Extension and more than 100 families to Camp Extension 4. Repair of access roads, culverts, bridges and infrastructure is ongoing with continued attention to preparing for further heavy rains.
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Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in East Africa. The future climate change projections suggest that temperature will rise and rainfall variability will increase with high unpredictability. Agriculture is extremely v
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ulnerable to these
changes, with concerns that the yields of the main cereal crops will be adversely affected.
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