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Global Economic Prospects 2023

The World Bank The World Bank (2023) CC

Global growth is projected to slow significantly amid high inflation, tight monetary policy, and more restrictive credit conditions. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growt... more

Zimbabwe Humanitarian Response Plan 2020 (Revised July 2020 to update COVID-19 Response)

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs OCHA (2020) C1

Across Zimbabwe, 7 million people in urban and rural areas are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, compared to 5.5 million in August 2019. Since the launch of the Revised Humanitarian Appeal in August 2019, circumstances for millions of Zimbabweans have worsened. Drought and crop failure, exa... more

The impact on trade and development of the war in Ukraine

UNCTAD (2022) C1

UNCTAD has prepared a rapid assessment of the impact of war in Ukraine on trade and development, and interrelated issues in the areas of finance, technology, investment and sustainable development. The results confirm a rapidly worsening outlook for the world economy, underpinned by rising food, fu... more

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Global Trends and Prospects

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2023) CC

According to most recent data, the world economy grew by 3.1 per cent in 2022. To many, the rebound suggested that a soft landing was possible in 2023, and that the key problems of the year 2022 – rising prices, supply-chain disruptions and recession risks – have been addressed. As a result, t... more

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Development assistance for health: past trends, associations, and the future of international financial flows for health

Dieleman, J.L.; M. T. Schneider; A. Haakenstad et al. Lancet (2016) C1

Background: Disbursements of development assistance for health (DAH) have risen substantially during the past several decades. More recently, the international community's attention has turned to other international challenges, introducing uncertainty about the future of disbursements for DAH. Meth... more

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Donor Financing of Global Mental Health, 1995—2015: An Assessment of Trends, Channels, and Alignment with the Disease Burden

Charlson, F.J.; J. Dieleman, L. Singh et al. PLOS One (2017) CC

Background: A recent report by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) highlights that mental health receives little attention despite being a major cause of disease burden. This paper extends previous assessments of development assistance for mental health (DAMH) in two significant w... more

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National spending on health by source for 184 countries between 2013 and 2040

Dieleman, J.; Templin, T.; Sadat, N. et al. (2016) CC

A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at simi...lar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected. Methods We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks. Findings Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending. Interpretation Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. more

Global Economic Prospects

World Bank Group (2024) CC

Amid a barrage of shocks during the past four years, the global economy has proved to be surprisingly resilient. Major economies are emerging mostly unscathed after the fastest rise in interest rates in 40 years—without the usual scars of steep unemployment rates or financial crashes. Global ... is being tamed without tipping the world into a recession. It is rare for countries to bring inflation rates down without triggering a downturn, but this time a “soft landing” seems increasingly possible. more

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Future and potential spending on health 2015–40: development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network Lancet (2017) C1

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spendi... more

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Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3

Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network Lancet (2020) C1

Background: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to ... more