The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these vi...ruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.
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his sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island D...eveloping States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. The two reports’ combined findings provide, for the first time, a global picture of the potential scale of internal climate migration across the six regions, allowing for a better understanding of how slow-onset climate change impacts, population dynamics, and development contexts shape mobility trends.
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Findings, interpretations and conclusions
expressed in this document are based on infor-
mation gathered by GIZ and its consultants,
partners and contributors from reliable sources.
Road safety is an issue that does not receive anywhere near the attention it deserves – and it really is one
of our great opportunities to save lives around the world
Emerging evidence and experience to inform risk management in a warming world
This article provides an overview of the current and projected climate change risks and impacts to mental health and provides recommendations for priority actions to address the mental health consequences of climate change.
This recommendation is an update of one of the 49 recommendations that were published in the WHO recommendations on antenatal care for a positive pregnancy experience. The recommendation was developed initially using the standardized operating procedures described in the WHO handbook for guideline d...evelopment.
In summary, the process included: (i) identification of priority question and outcomes; (ii) retrieval of evidence; (iii) assessment and synthesis of the evidence; (iv) formulation of recommendation; and (v) planning for the implementation, dissemination, impact evaluation and updating of the recommendation. This recommendation was identified by the Executive Guideline Steering Group (GSG) as a high priority for updating in response to new evidence on this question.
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The WHO Global strategy on human resources for health: workforce 2030 encourages development partners and global health initiatives to leverage their support to health systems in countries to sustainably strengthen the health workforce. To assess the impact of these investments, a methodology was de...veloped and pilot tested by WHO.
The impact assessment tool (consisting of an MS Excel calculator with two subsets) supports users to:
• assess and quantify the health impact of HRH investments made in the context of HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria programmes through their modelled effect on health service coverage of these three diseases; and
• provide aggregate indicative estimates of the range of health workers required to attain high coverage of selected health services.
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In 2015, 26% of the deaths of 5.9 million children who died before reaching their fifth birthday could have been prevented
through addressing environmental risks – a shocking missed opportunity. The prenatal and early childhood period represents
a window of particular vulnerability, where enviro...nmental hazards can lead to premature birth and other complications,
and increase lifelong disease risk including for respiratory disorders, cardiovascular disease and cancers. The environment
thus represents a major factor in children’s health, as well as a major opportunity for improvement, with effects seen in every
region of the world.
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Data for Action March 2022, Issue 5
Inferences through Machine Learning.Background Report.
What are the major origins and drivers of different types of conflict? Sorting out the main
causes of conflict and war is difficult and often shaped by ideological believes. Even today,
historians and political scientists have discussions on... the primary causes of the First World
War. There are several types of conflict, ranging from international and civil wars to local
conflicts, riots and revolution. And there are many theories that explain these different types
of conflict, which mostly focus on economic conditions and a range of factors that can foster
grievances and greed, creating incentives to initiate or join a conflict
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2016 ASCO EDUCATIONAL BOOK | asco.org/edbo
Environmental Research Volume 151, November 2016, Pages 115-123
Dengue is the world’s most important arboviral disease in terms of number of people affected. Over the past 50 years, incidence increased 30-fold: there were approximately 390 million infections in 2010. Globalization, trade, travel,... demographic trends, and warming temperatures are associated with the recent spread of the primary vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and of dengue. Overall, models project that new geographic areas along the fringe of current geographic ranges for Aedes will become environmentally suitable for the mosquito’s lifecycle, and for dengue transmission. Many endemic countries where dengue is likely to spread further have underdeveloped health systems, increasing the substantial challenges of disease prevention and control. Control focuses on management of Aedes, although these efforts have typically had limited effectiveness in preventing outbreaks. New prevention and control efforts are needed to counter the potential consequences of climate change on the geographic range and incidence of dengue, including novel methods of vector control and dengue vaccines.
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PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also ...one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15(12), 2626; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15122626
Climate change is increasing risks to human health and to the health systems that seek to protect the safety and well-being of populations. Health authorities require information about current associatio...ns between health outcomes and weather or climate, vulnerable populations, projections of future risks and adaptation opportunities in order to reduce exposures, empower individuals to take needed protective actions and build climate-resilient health systems. An increasing number of health authorities from local to national levels seek this information by conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments. While assessments can provide valuable information to plan for climate change impacts, the results of many studies are not helping to build the global evidence-base of knowledge in this area. They are also often not integrated into adaptation decision making, sometimes because the health sector is not involved in climate change policy making processes at the national level. Significant barriers related to data accessibility, a limited number of climate and health models, uncertainty in climate projections, and a lack of funding and expertise, particularly in developing countries, challenge health authority efforts to conduct rigorous assessments and apply the findings. This paper examines the evolution of climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments, including guidance developed for such projects, the number of assessments that have been conducted globally and implementation of the findings to support health adaptation action. Greater capacity building that facilitates assessments from local to national scales will support collaborative efforts to protect health from current climate hazards and future climate change. Health sector officials will benefit from additional resources and partnership opportunities to ensure that evidence about climate change impacts on health is effectively translated into needed actions to build health resilience.
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