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PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also
...
one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
more
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu
...
re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
more
One Earth Perspective. Cell Press
PNAS 2022 Vol. 119 No. 7 e2109217118
The authors conduct an integrated survey of Antimicrobial Resistant Organisms (AMR) in drinking water, wastewater and surface water in three settings in Bangladesh: rural households, rural poultry farms, and urban food markets. Results show that untreated water discharged from rural households, poul
...
try farms and urban markets are major contributors to surface water pollution and antibiotic resistant bacteria genes, calling for increased surveillance and monitoring.
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Joule 5, 2687–2714 October 20, 2021 Cell Press
The Investment guidelines for youth in agrifood systems in Africa, developed jointly by FAO and the African Union Commission (AUC) through a multi-stakeholder and participatory process, highlight the importance of youth as change agents and key stakeholders contributing to sustainable agrifood syste
...
ms. The guidelines aim to accelerate investments in and by youth in agrifood systems by providing practical guidance - including tools and examples - to design, develop, implement, monitor and evaluate youth-focused and youth-sensitive investment programmes and to engage youth fully as partners in the entire process.
more
The Lancet Planetary Health Volume 6, ISSUE 4, e342-e349, April 01, 2022. Human impacts on earth-system processes are overshooting several planetary boundaries, driving a crisis of ecological breakdown. This crisis is being caused in large part by global resource extraction, which has increased dra
...
matically over the past half century. We propose a novel method for quantifying national responsibility for ecological breakdown by assessing nations’ cumulative material use in excess of equitable and sustainable boundaries.
more
The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol.5 Issue 2, Feb. 1,2021.
Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying “well below 2°C”, which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequa
...
te to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence.
more
One Health 5 (2018) 34–36
Science of The Total Environment Volume 764, 10 April 2021, 142919
Projects from around the world
Mass vaccination campaigns to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) are occurring in many countries; estimates of vaccine effectiveness are urgently needed
to support decision making. A countrywide mass vaccination campaign with the
use of an inactivated severe acute respiratory syndrome c
...
oronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
vaccine (CoronaVac) was conducted in Chile starting on February 2, 2021.
more
Screening programmes for tuberculosis (TB) among immigrants rarely consider the heterogeneity of
risk related to migrants’ country of origin. We assess the performance of a large screening programme in asylum seekers by analysing (i) the difference in yield and numbers needed to screen (NNS) by c
...
ountry and WHO-reported TB burden, (ii) the possible impact of screening thresholds on sensitivity, and (iii) the value of WHO-estimated TB burden to improve the prediction accuracy of screening yield.
more
Panam Salud Publica. 2021;45:e22. https://doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2021.22
A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Vol.399 Issue 10341 p.2129-2154
Human resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 s
...
trategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance.
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Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2021;45:e74.
Some characteristics of patients and healthcare providers influence treatment success in MDR-TB cases. Physicians’ and nurses’ knowledge about MDR-TB must be improved, and follow-up of MDR-TB patients who are living with HIV and of those affiliated with the
...
subsidized health insurance scheme in Colombia must be strengthened, as these patients have a lower likelihood of a successful treatment outcome.
more
Rev Panam Salud Publica 45, 2021 |
Rev. Latino-Am. Enfermagem 2019;27:e3086 DOI: 10.1590/1518-8345.2608.3086
