Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu...re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
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February 2020Earth's Future 8(2):e2019EF001377.The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We... develop a cross‐scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution).
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Snakebite envenoming constitutes a serious medical condition that primarily affects residents of rural communities in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and New Guinea. It is an occupational, environmental, and domestic health hazard that exacerbates the already impoverished state of these communities. Co...nservative estimates indicate that, worldwide, more than 5 million people suffer snakebite every year, leading to 25,000–125,000 deaths, while an estimated 400,000 people are left with permanent disabilities.
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This paper introduces a new dataset of official financing—including foreign aid and other forms of concessional and non-concessional state financing—from China to 138 countries between 2000 and 2014. We use these data to investigate whether and to what extent Chinese aid affects economic growth ...in recipient countries. To account for the endogeneity of aid, we employ an instrumental-variables strategy that relies on exogenous variation in the supply of Chinese aid over time resulting from changes in Chinese steel production. Variation across recipient countries results from a country’s probability of receiving aid. Controlling for year- and recipient-fixed effects that capture the levels of these variables, their interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument. Our results show that Chinese official development assistance (ODA) boosts economic growth in recipient countries. For the average recipient country, we estimate that one additional Chinese ODA project produces a 0.7 percentage point increase in economic growth two years after the project is committed. We also benchmark the effectiveness of Chinese aid vis-á-vis the World Bank, the United States, and all members of the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC).
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Background
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are one of the global leading causes of concern due to the rising prevalence and consequence of mortality and disability with a heavy economic burden. The objective of the current study was to analyze the trend in CVD incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-...incidence ratio (MIR) across the world over 28 years.
Methods
The age-standardized CVD mortality and incidence rates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 for both genders and different world super regions with available data every year during the period 1990–2017. Additionally, the Human Development Index was sourced from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) database for all countries at the same time interval. The marginal modeling approach was implemented to evaluate the mean trend of CVD incidence, mortality, and MIR for 195 countries and separately for developing and developed countries and also clarify the relationship between the indices and Human Development Index (HDI) from 1990 to 2017.
Results
The obtained estimates identified that the global mean trend of CVD incidence had an ascending trend until 1996 followed by a descending trend after this year. Nearly all of the countries experienced a significant declining mortality trend from 1990 to 2017. Likewise, the global mean MIR rate had a significant trivial decrement trend with a gentle slope of 0.004 over the time interval. As such, the reduction in incidence and mortality rates for developed countries was significantly faster than developing counterparts in the period 1990–2017 (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, the developing nations had a more rather shallow decrease in MIR compared to developed ones.
Conclusions
Generally, the findings of this study revealed that there was an overall downward trend in CVD incidence and mortality rates, while the survival rate of CVD patients was rather stable. These results send a satisfactory message that global effort for controlling the CVD burden was quite successful. Nonetheless, there is an urgent need for more efforts to improve the survival rate of patients and lower the burden of this disease in some areas with an increasing trend of either incidence or mortality.
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Unmet mental health needs in the Region of the Americas are a leading source of morbidity and mortality, which result in tremendous health, social, and economic consequences. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the mental health crisis in the Region, necessitating urgent action at the highest leve...ls of government and across sectors to build back better mental health now and for the future. This landmark report is the result of the PAHO High-Level Commission on Mental Health and COVID-19. It provides an analysis of the mental health situation in the Region, followed by a series of recommendations and corresponding actions to support countries in the Americas to prioritize and advance mental health using human rights- and equity-based approaches.
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THELANCETID-D-16-00800 S1473-3099(16)30318-8
The five thematic discussion papers in this collection were prepared by members of the Global Prevention Coalition Steering Group and other experts from various institutions and countries. Contributors are listed in alphabetical order. The five papers are meant to inform country consultations and th...e development of a Global HIV Prevention Roadmap. They do not reflect the views of UNAIDS or any other agency or organization.
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In view of the ongoing political, peace and reconciliation, administrative and economic reforms as well as plans to establish the United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) in 2018, WFP extended the current Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO 200299), launched in January 2...013, by two years to include 2016 and 2017, with approved budget USD 343 million. To echo this extension and provide a more appropriate response to the country's rapid and multi-pronged transition, WFP adopted a transition strategy with gradually reduced emphasis on humanitarian assistance and greater focus on early recovery and development interventions. WFP's strategic engagement in-country was driven by the overarching goal to assist Myanmar to achieve the national Zero Hunger Challenge by 2025, and was guided by three priorities: emergency preparedness and response; nutrition; and provision of social safety nets.
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Circumcision – consultative review of additional information, 12 August 2016
21 September 2016
This policy brief has been developed in response to the contemporary challenge of antibiotic resistance (ABR). ABR poses a formidable threat to global health and sustainable development. It is now increasingly recognized that the systematic neglect of cultural factors is one of the biggest obs...tacles to achieving better health outcomes and better standards of living worldwide. Using a cultural contexts of health approach, the policy brief explores the centrality of culture to the challenge of ABR. The brief examines how the prescription and use of antibacterial medicines, the transmission of resistance, and the regulation and funding of research are influenced by cultural, social and commercial, as well as biological and technological factors. The brief moves beyond the ready equation of culture with individual behaviours and demonstrates how culture serve as an enabler of health and provide new possibilities for change.
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In the current absence of vaccine for COVID-19, public health response target breaking the chain of infection by focusing on the mode of transmission. This paper summarizes current evidence-base around the transmission dynamics, pathogenic, and clinical features of COVID-19, to critically identify i...f there are any gaps in the current IPC guidelines.
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The results of a WHO survey conducted to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on up to 25 essential health services in countries show disruptions of essential health services in nearly all countries, and more so in lower-income than higher-income countries. The great majority of service disrup...tions were partial, which was defined as a change of 5–50% in service provision or use.
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The 12th Meeting of the Regional Certification Commission (RCC) for the Polio Endgame in the Region of the Americas was conducted virtually due to the pandemic of COVID-19. The meeting was composed of 5 steps:
Step 1: An introductory meeting between RCC members and Secretariat
Step 2: Assessment... of the annual and containment reports by the reviewers
Step 3: Observations and recommendations review
Step 4: A meeting between RCC Chair and the Secretariat to review the draft report and general recommendations of the meeting
Step 5: RCC meeting to review and approve the recommendations to each country and the final report and recommendations of the meeting
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Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5: e93–101
Climate change has important implications for the health and futures of children and young people, yet they have little power to limit its harm, making them vulnerable to climate anxiety. This is the first large-scale investigation of climate anxiety in children and young people globally and its rel...ationship with perceived government response.
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