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Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health f
...
inancing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980–2015, and health spend data from 1995–2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted.
more
Background: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to
...
measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated.
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The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed,
especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in
many low-income countries, yet li
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ttle is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We
aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health
financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.
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Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026
Global Burden of Disease 2021 Health Financing Collaborator Network
The Lancet Glob Health
(2023)
C2
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-i
...
ncome and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness.
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Monitoring financial protection and utilization of health services in Mongolia 2009-2018 is based on national representative household socioeconomic surveys. The study finds that between 2009 and 2018, despite ambitious health reforms, the incidence of catastrophic health spending and impoverishing
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spending at the relative poverty line have increased. These increases were mainly driven by out-of-pocket spending on medicines and inpatient care. In the same period, inequity in access to and utilization of health services remained constant among population groups. Evidence suggests health financing policies need to be further strengthened to make progress towards universal health coverage. Continuous tracking of out-of-pocket payments and service utilization to inform policymaking is needed.
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Financing for malaria control has increased as part of international commitments to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We aimed to identify the unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would incre
...
ase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions.
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A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at simi
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lar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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The final text of the outcome document adopted at the Third Internatinal Conference on Financing for Development (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 13–16 July 2015) and endorsed by the General Assembly in its resolution 69/313 of 27 July 2015.
Zero draft of the outcome document adopted at the Third Internatinal Conference on Financing for Development (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 13–16 July 2015) and endorsed by the General Assembly in its resolution 69/313 of 27 July 2015.
The UN’s SDG Stimulus Plan, which calls for additional liquidity, effective debt restructuring and the expansion of development financing, has the potential to free up significant fiscal space in developing economies. For 52 most debt-vulnerable e
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conomies, a 30 percent haircut of 2021 public external debt stock could lower debt service payments in 2022–2029 by between US$44 billion and $148 billion, depending on the participation of various creditor classes. For all developing economies, a 40 percent “refinancing” of their 2021 bond debt stock to average official creditor rates could amount to a $121 billion savings on interest payments in 2022–2029. Against the backdrop of growing economic and geopolitical fragmentation, this policy brief describes building blocks for exiting the crisis.
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Past quantitative research on health financing has focused mostly on the level and distribution of total expenditure, with little emphasis on the specific role of public funds, despite their known importance for universal health coverage (UHC). Heal
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th Accounts data do not disaggregate public expenditure on health by source of funding. Achieving a better understanding of public financing for health in the context of the macro-fiscal and health financing environment is of fundamental importance to the development of future health financing policy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
more
Substantial progress in the fight against HIV has been made over the past decade. Advances in HIV prevention, testing, and treatment have been matched by declines in HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths. The success of Botswana reaching the 95-95-95 targets, despite resource limitations, points to a
...
hopeful future. However, the recent publication of In Danger: UNAIDS Global AIDS Update 2022, the UNAIDS annual report, paints a sobering picture of the fragility of these gains.
Stagnating financing for the HIV response, alongside continued global inequities, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, jeopardises progress. Current projections indicate that neither the UNAIDS 2025 95-95-95 targets nor the goal of ending the AIDS
epidemic by 2030 will be met.
more
Government health expenditure is a primary means of financing health services in many countries. Research assessing the relation between government health expenditure and development assistance for health channelled to governments (DAH-G) has produc
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ed contradictory conclusions. This research aims to credibly estimate displacement and measure if the DAH-G effect is symmetric or if increases and decreases in DAH-G have distinct effects.
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A corruption event in 2009 led to changes in how donors supported the Zambian health system. Donor funding was withdrawn from the district basket mechanism, originally designed to pool donor and government financing for primary care. The withdrawal
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of these funds from the pooled financing mechanism raised questions from Government and donors regarding the impact on primary care financing during this period of aid volatility.
more
Previous advocacy efforts have achieved tangible goals in terms garnering political commitments
to increase financing for TB—as seen at the 2018 UN High-Level Meeting on TB. The challenge
now is to ensure that these commitments are actually met
...
within a global biomedical research
ecosystem that is designed and incentivized to prioritize the health needs of wealthy populations
more
Donor financing to low- and middle-income countries for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health increased substantially from 2008 to 2013. However, increased spending by donors might not improve outcomes, if funds are delivered in ways tha
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t undermine countries’ public financial management systems and incur high transaction costs for project implementation
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Impact of health systems strengthening on coverage of maternal health services in Rwanda, 2000–2010: a systematic review
Maurice Bucagu, Jean M. Kagubare, Paulin Basinga, Fidèle Ngabo, Barbara K Timmons & Angela C Lee
Reproductive Health Matters
(2012)
CC
From 2000 to 2010, Rwanda implemented comprehensive health sector reforms to strengthen the public health system, with the aim of reducing maternal and newborn deaths in line with Millennium Development Goal 5, among many other improvements in national health. Based on a systematic review of the lit
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erature, national policy documents and three Demographic & Health Surveys (2000, 2005 and 2010), this paper describes the reforms and the policies they were based on, and provides data on the extent of Rwanda’s progress in expanding the coverage of four key women’s health services. Progress took place in 2000–2005 and became more rapid after 2006, mostly in rural areas, when the national facility-based childbirth policy, performance-based financing, and community-based health insurance were scaled up. Between 2006 and 2010, the following increases in coverage took place as compared to 2000–2005, particularly in rural areas, where most poor women live: births with skilled attendance (77% increase vs. 26%), institutional delivery (146% increase vs. 8%), and contraceptive prevalence (351% increase vs. 150%). The primary factors in these improvements were increases in the health workforce and their skills, performance-based financing, community-based health insurance, and better leadership and governance. Further research is needed to determine the impact of these changes on health outcomes in women and children.
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NGO Social Contracting
Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses
NGO Social Contracting
Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses
Modelling an Optimised Investment Approach for Tajikistan
The Republic of Tajikistan; UNDP
(2014)
C2
Getting to Zero
Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses
