PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also ...one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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The road map 2030 was developed by WHO through an extensive global consultation, with indicators set for measuring progress against targets and milestones. This compendium of indicators provides a comprehensive and standardized listing of recommended indicators, including the 70 core indicators pres...ented in the M&E framework. These indicators will also support reporting on strategies described in other road map companion documents to guide action against neglected tropical diseases include the sustainability framework, the global strategy on water, sanitation and hygiene, the One Health approach and the strategic framework for integrated control and elimination of skin-related neglected tropical diseases.
The purpose of this compendium is to guide monitoring and evaluation of programmes and thereby to improve their quality and effectiveness in alignment with the road map goals. It provides a standardized listing of the most widely used indicators relevant to countries, with uniformity in defining indicators to allow comparisons over time and among different programmes. Detailed metadata are provided for each of these indicators to facilitate validity, internal consistency, standardized measurement, estimation methods and comparability of data across countries.
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This guide presents a basis for understanding how diarrhoeal diseases are currently influenced by climate and weather, and may be further exacerbated by climate change. It is a technical guide on how to conduct a Vulnerability & Adaptation assessment for diarrhoeal diseases and climate change, and p...rovides guidance on how to:
identify populations and regions vulnerable to diarrhoeal diseases and the reasons for their vulnerability;
establish relevant baselines that can be analysed and monitored;
conduct analyses to project how diarrhoeal diseases may be impacted in the future due to climate change; and
identify appropriate responses to mitigate and monitor these risks over time.
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Background
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are one of the global leading causes of concern due to the rising prevalence and consequence of mortality and disability with a heavy economic burden. The objective of the current study was to analyze the trend in CVD incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-...incidence ratio (MIR) across the world over 28 years.
Methods
The age-standardized CVD mortality and incidence rates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 for both genders and different world super regions with available data every year during the period 1990–2017. Additionally, the Human Development Index was sourced from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) database for all countries at the same time interval. The marginal modeling approach was implemented to evaluate the mean trend of CVD incidence, mortality, and MIR for 195 countries and separately for developing and developed countries and also clarify the relationship between the indices and Human Development Index (HDI) from 1990 to 2017.
Results
The obtained estimates identified that the global mean trend of CVD incidence had an ascending trend until 1996 followed by a descending trend after this year. Nearly all of the countries experienced a significant declining mortality trend from 1990 to 2017. Likewise, the global mean MIR rate had a significant trivial decrement trend with a gentle slope of 0.004 over the time interval. As such, the reduction in incidence and mortality rates for developed countries was significantly faster than developing counterparts in the period 1990–2017 (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, the developing nations had a more rather shallow decrease in MIR compared to developed ones.
Conclusions
Generally, the findings of this study revealed that there was an overall downward trend in CVD incidence and mortality rates, while the survival rate of CVD patients was rather stable. These results send a satisfactory message that global effort for controlling the CVD burden was quite successful. Nonetheless, there is an urgent need for more efforts to improve the survival rate of patients and lower the burden of this disease in some areas with an increasing trend of either incidence or mortality.
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Small drinking-water supplies commonly experience operational, managerial, technical and resourcing challenges that impact their ability to deliver safe and reliable services. The needs and opportunities associated with these supplies therefore warrant explicit consideration in policies and regulati...ons.
These Guidelines, specifically tailored to small water supplies, build on over 60 years of guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) on drinking-water quality and safety. They focus on establishing drinking-water quality regulations and standards that are health based and context appropriate; on proactively managing risks through water safety planning and sanitary inspections; and on carrying out independent surveillance. The guidance is intended primarily for decision-makers at national and subnational levels with responsibility for developing regulatory frameworks and support programmes related to these activities. Other stakeholders involved in water service provision will also benefit from the guidance in this document.
Designed to be practical and accessible, these Guidelines offer clear guidance that is rooted in the principle of progressive improvement. State-of-the-art recommendations and implementation guidance are provided, drawn from a comprehensive evidence review and established good practices. Additionally, case examples are provided from countries and areas around the world to demonstrate how the guidance in this publication has been implemented in practice in a wide variety of contexts.
Together with WHO’s 2024 Sanitary inspection packages – a supporting tool for the Guidelines for drinking-water quality: small water supplies, these Guidelines update and supersede WHO’s 1997 Guidelines for drinking-water quality. Volume 3: surveillance and control of community supplies. Key changes to this updated publication include a greater focus on preventive risk management and a broader range of small water supplies covered, including those managed by households, communities and professional entities.
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The HIV/AIDS Sustainability Index Dashboard is a tool completed every two years by President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) teams, host government and partner stakeholders to sharpen the understanding of each country’s sustainability landscape and to assist PEPFAR and other donors in ...making informed HIV/AIDS investment decisions. Based on responses to more than 100 questions, the SID assesses the current state of sustainability of national HIV/AIDS responses across 17 critical elements. Scores for these elements are displayed on a color-coded dashboard, together with contextual charts and information. As the SID is completed over time,
it will allow stakeholders to track progress and gaps across these key components of financial and programmatic sustainability.
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Now entering its ninth year, the crisis in north-east Nigeria has created vulnerabilities and humanitarian concerns. An estimated 7.7 million men, women, boys and girls are in acute need of protection and assistance. While the humanitarian community has provided life-saving assistance to ...="attribute-to-highlight medbox">over 5.6 million affected people in 2017 and helped stabilise living conditions for millions of people, reducing mortality and morbidity, significant humanitarian needs still remain.
The Humanitarian Response Plan at a glance:
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 1
Provide life-saving emergency assistance to the most vulnerable people in conflict-affected areas ensuring that assistance is timely and appropriate and meets relevant technical standards.
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 2
Ensure that all assistance promotes the protection, safety and dignity of affected people, and is provided equitably to women, girls, men and boys.
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 3
Foster resilience and early recovery, and strengthen the humanitarian development nexus by working towards collective outcomes.
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This Technical Brief focuses on appraising and prioritising options for climate resilience with a view to informing water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) programme and project design.
This Technical Brief:
- provides a simple scorecard/checklist approach to use as a starting point for appr...aising and prioritising options, and as an awareness-raising activity - covers all aspects of WASH
- has a predominantly rural focus, to align with the rest of the Strategic Framework and Technical Briefs
- focuses on current and near future options over the next 15–20 years, which fits in with WASH programming timescales and development
- includes WASH examples to show how the approach can be applied.
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“Because we struggle to survive” Child Labour among Refugees of the Syrian Conflict | This study provides pertinent first-hand information on the reality facing Syrian children who are working either in their homeland, the neighbouring countries or elsewhere in Europe. Syria's civil war is the w...orst humanitarian crisis of our time. Hundreds of thousands of people - adults and children alike - have been killed. Two thirds of all Syrians have lost their homes and their livelihoods. Millions of Syrians have been uprooted from their home communities and forced to flee within their country or to neighbouring countries. The consistent spill-over has drawn global attention not just to the humanitarian crisis facing both local communities and national governments but also to the economic and social strain. The bloodshed wreaked by the different parties continues. The suffering deepens. Approximately half of the Syrian refugees and displaced persons are children and young people who suffer from a double-vulnerability: as children and as migrants or refugees.
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The figures and findings reflected in the 2019 Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) represent the independent analysis
of the United Nations (UN) and its humanitarian partners based on information available to them. While the HNO aims
to provide consolidated humanitarian analysis and data to help inf...orm joint strategic humanitarian planning, many of
the figures provided throughout the document are estimates based on sometimes incomplete and partial data sets using
the methodologies for collection that were available at the time. The Government of Syria has expressed its reservations
over the data sources and methodology of assessments used to inform the HNO, as well as on a number of HNO findings.
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The National AIDS Control Council (NACC) continues to strengthen partnerships with all stakeholders in the response to HIV and AIDS in Kenya. While recognizing that there is no single preventive approach to reverse the spread of HIV, the faith sector comprising of Faith Communities (FCs) a...nd Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs) have demonstrated sustained motivation and moral authority with resources and outreach capability to significantly reduce new HIV infections. In addition, they have the power to influence policy changes to address societal, cultural and structural factors that impede individuals’ capacity to prevent HIV infection. According to Kenya Demographic Health Survey (2014), over 97% of the Kenya population was reported to ascribe to religious affiliation.
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Conflicts and disasters, including pandemics, affect women and men in all their diversity differently, and women and girls often suffer the most. Crisis-related hardships combine and compound pre-existing disadvantages, for example, they often cause women’s working conditions to worsen while incre...asing their overall workload and care responsibilities. At the same time, crises can give rise to changes that enable women to take up roles that were previously available only to men, and crises can open opportunities to address existing gender-based discrimination and violations of rights.
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Background
Noncommunicable diseases are major contributors to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Modifying the risk factors for these conditions, such as physical inactivity, is thus essential. Addressing the context or circumstances in which physical activity occurs may promote physical activity a...t a population level. We assessed the effects of infrastructure, policy or regulatory interventions for increasing physical activity.
Methods
We searched PubMed, Embase and clinicaltrials.gov to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled before-after (CBAs) studies, and interrupted time series (ITS) studies assessing population-level infrastructure or policy and regulatory interventions to increase physical activity. We were interested in the effects of these interventions on physical activity, body weight and related measures, blood pressure, and CVD and type 2 diabetes morbidity and mortality, and on other secondary outcomes. Screening and data extraction was done in duplicate, with risk of bias was using an adapted Cochrane risk of bias tool. Due to high levels of heterogeneity, we synthesised the evidence based on effect direction.
Results
We included 33 studies, mostly conducted in high-income countries. Of these, 13 assessed infrastructure changes to green or other spaces to promote physical activity and 18 infrastructure changes to promote active transport. The effects of identified interventions on physical activity, body weight and blood pressure varied across studies (very low certainty evidence); thus, we remain very uncertain about the effects of these interventions. Two studies assessed the effects of policy and regulatory interventions; one provided free access to physical activity facilities and showed that it may have beneficial effects on physical activity (low certainty evidence). The other provided free bus travel for youth, with intervention effects varying across studies (very low certainty evidence).
Conclusions
Evidence from 33 studies assessing infrastructure, policy and regulatory interventions for increasing physical activity showed varying results. The certainty of the evidence was mostly very low, due to study designs included and inconsistent findings between studies. Despite this drawback, the evidence indicates that providing access to physical activity facilities may be beneficial; however this finding is based on only one study. Implementation of these interventions requires full consideration of contextual factors, especially in low resource settings.
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Female genital mutilation (FGM), a violation of girls’ and women’s human rights, is becoming less common, and opposition to the practice is growing — in the last two decades, the proportion of girls and women who want the practice to stop has doubled.
However, progress is not universal. In s...ome countries, FGM is as common today as it was three decades ago. Even in places where the practice is on the decline, progress would need to be at least 10 times faster to meet the 2030 target for elimination. Additionally, an alarming trend is emerging: around 1 in 4 girls and women who have undergone FGM, or 52 million worldwide, were cut by health personnel. This proportion is twice as high among adolescents, indicating growth in the medicalization of the practice.
This brochure explores the global FGM trends — progress made in the past three decades, shifts in attitudes, and changes in the circumstances surrounding the practice.
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Background: Community health worker (CHW) programmes are a valuable component of primary care in resource-poor settings. The evidence supporting their effectiveness generally shows improvements in disease-specific outcomes relative to the absence of a CHW programme. In this study, we evaluated expan...ding an existing HIV and tuberculosis (TB) disease-specific CHW programme into a polyvalent, household-based model that subsequently included non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malnutrition and TB screening, as well as family planning and antenatal care (ANC).
Methods: We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial in Neno District, Malawi. Six clusters of approximately 20 000 residents were formed from the catchment areas of 11 healthcare facilities. The intervention roll-out was staggered every 3 months over 18 months, with CHWs receiving a 5-day foundational training for their new tasks and assigned 20–40 households for monthly (or more frequent) visits.
Findings: The intervention resulted in a decrease of approximately 20% in the rate of patients defaulting from chronic NCD care each month (−0.8 percentage points (pp) (95% credible interval: −2.5 to 0.5)) while maintaining the already low default rates for HIV patients (0.0 pp, 95% CI: −0.6 to 0.5). First trimester ANC attendance increased by approximately 30% (6.5pp (−0.3, 15.8)) and paediatric malnutrition case finding declined by 10% (−0.6 per 1000 (95% CI −2.5 to 0.8)). There were no changes in TB programme outcomes, potentially due to data challenges.
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WHO today released its first roadmap to tackle postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) – defined as excessive bleeding after childbirth - which affects millions of women annually and is the world’s leading cause of maternal deaths.
Despite being preventable and treatable, PPH results in around 70 000 de...aths every year. For those who survive, it can cause disabilities and psychological trauma that last for years.
“Severe bleeding in childbirth is one of the most common causes of maternal mortality, yet it is highly preventable and treatable,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “This new roadmap charts a path forward to a world in which more women have a safe birth and a healthy future with their families.”
The Roadmap aims to help countries address stark differences in survival outcomes from PPH, which reflect major inequities in access to essential health services. Over 85% of deaths from PPH happen in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Risk factors include anaemia, placental abnormalities, and other complications in pregnancy such as infections and pre-eclampsia.
Many risk factors can be managed if there is quality antenatal care, including access to ultrasound, alongside effective monitoring in the hours after birth. If bleeding starts, it also needs to be detected and treated extremely quickly. Too often, however, health facilities lack necessary healthcare workers or resources, including lifesaving commodities such as oxytocin, tranexamic acid or blood for transfusions.
“Addressing postpartum haemorrhage needs a multipronged approach focusing on both prevention and response - preventing risk factors and providing immediate access to treatments when needed - alongside broader efforts to strengthen women’s rights,” said Dr Pascale Allotey, WHO Director for Sexual and Reproductive Health and HRP, the UN’s special programme on research development and training in human reproduction. “Every woman, no matter where she lives, should have access to timely, high quality maternity care, with trained health workers, essential equipment and shelves stocked with appropriate and effective commodities – this is crucial for treating postpartum bleeding and reducing maternal deaths.”
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For thousands of years, humans have been using wildlife for commercial and subsistence purposes. Wildlife trade takes place at local, national and international levels, with different forms of wildlife, such as live animals, partly processed products and finished products. Wildlife is a vital source... of safe and nutritious food, clothing, medicine, and other products, in addition to having religious and cultural value. Wildlife trade also contributes to livelihoods, income generation and overall economic development.
However, wildlife trade can have detrimental effects on species conservation, depleting natural resources, impoverishing biodiversity and degrading ecosystems (Morton et al., 2021). Wildlife trade, whether legal or illegal, regulated or unregulated, can pose threats to animal health and welfare. It also presents opportunities for zoonotic pathogens to spill over between wildlife and domestic animals, and for diseases to emerge with serious consequences for public or animal health and profound economic impacts (IPBES, 2020; Swift et al., 2007; Smith et al., 2009; Gortazar et al., 2014; Stephen, 2021; Stephen et al., 2022; FAO, 2020). The risk of pathogen spillover and disease emergence is amplified with increased interaction between humans, wildlife and domestic animals. The risk of pathogen spillover has also been exacerbated by climate change, intensified agriculture and livestock production, deforestation, and other land-use changes. Wildlife trade is also a risk to ecosystem biodiversity via the introduction of invasive species (Wikramanayake et al., 2021). Therefore, increased effort must be put into understanding the potential consequences of the wildlife trade, mapping and analysing the adjacent risks, and implementing strategies to manage those risks. Reducing wildlife-trade risks not only helps to limit disease but also minimises the negative effects of invasive species. Between 1960 and 2021, invasive alien species caused estimated cumulative damage of around 116 billion euros across 39 countries in the European Union alone, despite strict import regulations (Haubrock et al., 2021). The effect of invasive species is extremely apparent.
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Mpox is an emerging zoonotic disease caused by the mpox virus, a member of the Orthopoxvirus genus closely related to the variola virus that causes smallpox. Mpox was first discovered in 1958 when outbreaks of a pox-like disease occurred in monkeys kept for research. The first human case was recorde...d in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) during a period of intensified effort to eliminate smallpox and since then the infection has been reported in a number of African countries. Mpox can spread in humans through close contact, usually skin-to-skin contact, including sexual contact, with an infected person or animal, as well as with materials contaminated with the virus such as clothing, beddings and towels, and respiratory droplets in prolonged face to face contact. People remain infectious from the onset of symptoms until all the lesions have scabbed and healed. The virus may spread from infected animals through handling infected meat or through bites or scratches. Diagnosis is confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of material from a lesion for the virus’s DNA. Two separate clades of the mpox virus are currently circulating in Africa: Clade I, which includes subclades Ia and Ib, and Clade II, comprising subclades IIa and IIb. Clade Ia and Clade Ib have been associated with ongoing human-to-human transmission and are presently responsible for outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), while Clade Ib is also contributing to outbreaks in Burundi and other countries.
In 2022‒2023 mpox caused a global outbreak in over 110 countries, most of which had no previous history of the disease, primarily driven by human-to-human transmission of clade II through sexual contact. In just over a year, over 90,000 cases and 150 deaths were reported to the WHO. For the second time since 2022, mpox has been declared a global health emergency as the virus spreads rapidly across the African continent. On 13 Aug 2024, Africa CDC declared the ongoing mpox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (PHECS), marking the first such declaration by the agency since its inception in 2017.7 This declaration empowered the Africa CDC to lead and coordinate responses to the mpox outbreak across affected African countries. On August 14, 2024, the WHO declared the resurgence of mpox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) emphasizing the need for coordinated international response.
As of August 2024, Mpox has expanded beyond its traditional endemic regions, with new cases reported in countries including Sweden, Thailand, the Philippines, and Pakistan. Sweden has confirmed its first case of Clade 1 variant, which has been rapidly spreading in Africa, particularly in DRC. The emergence of this new variant raises concerns about its potential for higher lethality and transmission rates outside Africa.
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Azraq refugee camp located in Zarqa governorate was established in April 2014. As of June 2023, the camp continues to hosts 40,600 Syrian refugees, with 61% of the population children, and 25% of all households female-headed (UNHCR, 2023).
The water supply system in Azraq has been operational sin...ce 2017 across the four villages of the camp and consists of 300 tap stands, two boreholes and two storage locations (each with 16 T-95 steel tanks).
Based on data from UNICEF (2022), the community is provided on average 2100 cubic meters of safe, treated water a day, which is distributed across the camp via a gravity flow system. A distribution schedule is in place, with water pumped during two shift times each day in the morning and evening. Monthly data reported through ActivityInfo (2023) shows a range 53.5-76.3 million liters per month provided through the network in 2022 for an average of 57 liters/person/day – well above the locally agreed minimum standard of 35 liters/person/day and the SPHERE standard of 15 liters/person/day.
Latrine and shower facilities in the camp are organized through communal WASH blocks shared typically between three households and connected to water and greywater networks. However, based on an ACF and World Vision assessment (2022), 60% of the surveyed households are using private latrines (50% self-constructed latrines, and 10% constructed by WASH actors), 24% of households used communal latrines as private latrines not shared with other families, and 16% reported the use of communal latrines shared with other families.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted regular cardiovascular healthcare access and delivery. Service utilisation has declined, and excess cardiovascular mortality has been reported in several countries. We aim to estimate excess cardiovascular deaths in Chile during 2020.