PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also ...one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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Handbook of Foodborne Pathogenic Microorganisms and Natural Toxins
Emerging Infectious Diseases • www.cdc.gov/eid • Vol. 19, No. 9, September 2013
Overview:
- Part A is an introductory part which will give you background information about CBDRR in Myanmar. It has a small section about the importance of CBDRR in Myanmar, the stakeholders of CBDRR in Myanmar, as well as an overview about the challenges that are faced when implementing CBDRR... in Myanmar.
- Part B contains the instructions on how to conduct the 9-step process agreed upon and described in detail in the step-by-step methodology document. These nine (9) steps are considered the minimum required activities to be followed by all MRCS community based initiatives regardless of their budget or time frame.
- Part C includes all the implementation steps of CBDRR programs namely step 6 (Action Plan Development), and step 7 (Implementation of Action Plan).
- Part D includes all the steps that finalize a CBDRR program namely step 4 and step 8 (Baseline and Endline Study) as well as step 9 (Handover & Exit Strategy).
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Data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Demographic and Health Surveys. DHS Trend Reports No. 7