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Environmental Research Volume 151, November 2016, Pages 115-123
Dengue is the world’s most important arboviral disease in terms of number of people affected. Over the past 50 years, incidence increased 30-fold: there were approximately 390 million infections in 2010. Globalization, trade, travel,... demographic trends, and warming temperatures are associated with the recent spread of the primary vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and of dengue. Overall, models project that new geographic areas along the fringe of current geographic ranges for Aedes will become environmentally suitable for the mosquito’s lifecycle, and for dengue transmission. Many endemic countries where dengue is likely to spread further have underdeveloped health systems, increasing the substantial challenges of disease prevention and control. Control focuses on management of Aedes, although these efforts have typically had limited effectiveness in preventing outbreaks. New prevention and control efforts are needed to counter the potential consequences of climate change on the geographic range and incidence of dengue, including novel methods of vector control and dengue vaccines.more
PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also ...one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.more
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu...re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.more
Over the ages, human societies have altered local ecosystems and modified regional climates. Today the human influence has attained a global scale. This reflects the recent rapid increase in population size, energy consumption, intensity of land use, international trade and travel, and other human a...ctivities. These global changes have heightened awareness that the long-term good health of populations depends on the continued stability of biosphere's ecological, physical and socioeconomic systems.
The world's climate system is an integral part of the complex of life-supporting processes. Like other large systems, the global climate system is coming under pressure from human activities.
This book seeks to describe the context and process of global climate change, its actual or likely impacts on health, and how human societies and their governments should respond with particular focus on the health sector.more
Health Policy and Planning, Volume 35, Issue 1, February 2020, Pages 47–57, https://doi.org/10.1093/heapol/czz122
Colombia has an underreporting of 30% of the total cases, according to World Health Organization (WHO) estimations. In 2016, successful tuberculosis (TB) treatment rate was 70%, and t...he mortality rate ranged between 3.5% and 10%. In 2015, Colombia adopted and adapted the End TB strategy and set a target of 50% reduction in incidence and mortality by 2035 compared with 2015.more
In a retrospective review of hospital records of 40 human monkeypox cases from Nigeria, the majority developed fever and self-limiting vesiculopustular skin eruptions. Five deaths
were reported. Compared to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–negative cases, HIV type 1–coinfected cases had more ...prolonged illness, larger lesions, and higher rates of both secondary bacterial skin infections and genital ulcers.more
This Tailoring Antimicrobial Resistance Programmes (TAP) process assists Member States in initiating and undertaking projects to address the spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in their countries. AMR is a complex problem requiring unique, context-specific solutions. This TAP Toolbo...x contains a series of exercises and is aligned with the stages outlined in the TAP Quick Guide. The Toolbox is designed to be used by a TAP working group as they work through the stages outlined in the TAP Quick Guide. The exercises and tools presented in this Toolbox have been abridged and adapted from the TAP Manual which will be available soon.more
Peru celebrates 200 years of independence in 2021. Over this period of independent life, and despite the turbulent socio-political scenarios, from internal armed conflict to economic crisis to political instability over the last 40 years, Peru has experienced major changes on its epidemiological and... population health profile. Major advancements in maternal and child health as well as in communicable diseases have been achieved in recent decades, and today
Peru faces an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases including mental health conditions. In terms of the configuration of the public health system, Peru has also strived to secure country-wide optimal health care, struggling in particular to improve primary health care and intercultural services.more
This profile is part of a series of Climate Risk Country Profiles developed by the World Bank Group (WBG). The country profile
synthesizes most relevant data and information on climate change, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation actions and policies
at the country level. The country profile se...ries are designed as a quick reference source for development practitioners to better
integrate climate resilience in development planning and policy making.more
The survey highlights changes that have taken place in Bangladesh’s demographic and health situation since the previous BDHS surveys. The survey provides important information for policymakers and program personnel in addressing the monitoring and evaluation needs of the 4th Health, Population and... Nutrition Sector Program (4th HPNSP) of the Ministry of Health Family Welfare (MOHFW).more
The LDHS provides an opportunity to inform policy and provide data for planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of national health programs. It is designed to provide up-to-date information on health indicators including fertility levels, sexual activity, fertility preferences, awaren...ess and use of family
planning methods, breastfeeding practices, nutritional status of children, early childhood and maternal mortality, maternal and child health, and awareness and behaviors regarding HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections. The study also incorporated measurements of HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis Cprevalence along with seroprevalence of Ebola virus disease antibodies, the results of which will be included in future addendums. In addition to presenting national estimates, the report provides estimates of key indicators for both rural and urban areas, the country’s 15 counties, and the capital, Monrovia.more