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Publication Years
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Category
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Toolboxes
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2
ABSTRACT
Objectives: We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations.
Obesity and diabetes are affecting the peoples of the Americas at high and increasing rates. National surveys demonstrate that obesity is increasing in prevalence among all age groups; 7% to 12% of children under 5 years old and
one-fi fth of adolescents are obese, while rates of overweight and obe
...
sity among adults approach 60%. Obesity is the major modifi able risk factor for diabetes.
more
About one fourth of the world’s population is estimated to have been infected with the tuberculosis (TB) bacilli, and about 5–10% of those infected develop TB disease in their lifetime. The risk
...
for TB disease after infection depends on several factors, the most important being the person’s immunological status. TB preventive treatment (TPT) given to people at highest risk of progressing from TB infection to disease remains a critical element to achieve the global targets of the End TB Strategy, as reiterated by the second UN High Level Meeting on TB in 2023. Delivering TPT effectively and safely necessitates a programmatic approach to implement a comprehensive package of interventions along a cascade of care: identifying individuals at highest risk, screening for TB and ruling out TB disease, testing for TB infection, and choosing the preventive treatment option that is best suited to an individual, managing adverse events, supporting medication adherence and monitoring programmatic performance
more
The Men Are Away: Pregnancy Risk and Family Planning Needs among Women with a Migrant Husband in Barisal, Bangladesh
Khan, Rasheda, Kerry L. D. MacQuarrie, Quamrun Nahar, and Marzia Sultana
National Institute of Population Research and Training (NIPORT), International Center for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), and ICF International
(2016)
C1
DHS Further Analysis Reports No. 98
Malaria Journal (2018) 17:460 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-018-2606-9
In malaria endemic countries, asymptomatic cases constitute an important reservoir of infections sustaining transmission. Estimating the burden of the asymptomatic population
...
and identifying areas with elevated risk is important for malaria control in Burkina Faso.
more
PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also
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one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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Risk of spill-over of EVD to Uganda has been categorised as very high. On 28 September 2018, WHO elevated the risk at the regional level which includes Uganda from ‘high’ to ‘very high’. Uga
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nda has a very long and largely porous border with the DRC. High population movements across the borders occur for various reason including for trade, social activities and services and asylum. There are cross-border markets in several border districts in Uganda and DRC that involve thousands of people crossing into and out of DRC and Uganda for trade purposes several days in a week.
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Similar to other parts of the world, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Asia-Pacific Region has rapidly increased during the last few decades. The purposes of this pilot study were to determine the feasibility and the effects of a capacity building program for Village Health Vo
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lunteers (VHVs) to support self-management in a T2DM high risk population from a rural subdistrict in Northeast Thailand. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected using surveys, focus group discussions, and in-depth interviews. Data were analyzed and used to develop a 12-week capacity building program for VHVs. This program was then implemented on 60 subjects at high risk of T2DM in the selected community. According to the paired t-test and Wilcoxon-signed rank test, VHVs had higher scores on knowledge and self-efficacy of T2DM prevention after a 12 week intervention (p =.03 and p =.02, respectively). Study participants at risk for T2DM also had a significant increase in T2DM knowledge and self-management (p <.001). Implementation of the capacity building program for VHVs in Northeast Thailand was feasible. The key successes were strong community bonding, community empowerment, and support from family and public health nurses. Effects of the program should be examined with those in other Asia-Pacific countries.
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Hypertension is the number one health related risk factor in India, with the largest contribution to burden of disease and mortality. It contributes to an estimated 1.6 million deaths, due to ischemic heart disease and stroke, out of a total of abou
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t 10 million deaths annually in India. Fifty seven percent of deaths related to stroke and 24% of deaths related to coronary heart disease are related to hypertension. Hypertension is one of the commonest non-communicable diseases in India, with an overall prevalence of 29.8% among the adult population, and a higher prevalence in urban areas (33.8% vs. 27.6%)
according to recent estimates.
Awareness of hypertension in India is low while appropriate treatment and control among those with hypertension is even lower: Hypertension is a chronic, persistent, largely asymptomatic disease. A majority of the patients with hypertension in India are unaware of their condition. This is because of low levels of awareness and the lack of screening for hypertension in adults-either as a systematic programme or as an opportunistic exercise during visits to healthcare providers.
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Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for 81% of all deaths in the region of the Americas, of which 34% befall prematurely in people between 30- 69 years old. The burden of theses diseases and their common risk factors jeopardize the healt
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h systems to provide adequate management, as well as to implement customized policies and interventions. The PAHO/WHO STEPwise approach to NCD risk factor surveillance (STEPS) is a simple, sequential, standardized method for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating data on key NCD risk factors in countries in adults from 18 to 69 years old. This survey covers key modifiable risk factors: tobacco use, alcohol use, physical inactivity, and unhealthy diet, as well as key biological risk factors: overweight and obesity, raised blood pressure, raised blood glucose, and abnormal blood lipids. STEPS is a household survey that gathers information on the risk factors through a face-to-face interview (step 1), simple physical measurements (step 2), and collection of urine and blood samples for biochemical analysis (step 3). Every step has a core set of questions, measurements, and expanded sets depending on the countries' needs and interests. It also has optional modules. Implementing STEPS allows the comparability of data within and between countries due to its standardized data collection. It also helps health services plan public health priorities and monitors and evaluates population-wide interventions. It is designed to help countries build and strengthen their capacity to conduct surveillance. STEPS captures 11 of the 25 indicators outlined in the NCD Global Monitoring Framework relating to 7 of the nine global targets.
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This Interim Guidance outlines how key public health and social measures needed to reduce the risk of COVID-19 spread and the impact of the disease can be adapted for use in low capacity and humanitarian settings. The recommendations outlined here n
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eed to be adjusted to the scale of transmission, context and resources, in order to achieve the objective of managing COVID-19, namely to reduce transmission and facilitate the detection and management of infected and exposed individuals within the population. The Guidance is intended for humanitarian and development actors of all operational levels working with communities ocal authorities involved in COVID-19 preparedness and response operations in these settings, in support of national and local governments and plans. Additional considerations for support to residents of urban informal settlements and slums are available in Annex 1.
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The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases detected and reported in each country is influenced by
many factors including limited access and/or utilization of healthcare and COVID-19 testing, limited
surveillance, lack of knowledge amongst the population
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about when to seek testing, an asymptomatic presentation, and other unknown issues. This is true in all countries of the world, and not Africa specific, however there are factors unique to Africa which may also affect the way the virus behaves there. COVID-19 prevalence data are critical for planning effective mitigation strategies and understandingthe true impact of the disease and relevant intervention measures in Africa, which might be quite different from regions with a different population age distribution or risk factor profile.
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Objective: To conduct a landscape assessment of public knowledge of cardiovascular disease risk factors and acute myocardial infarction symptoms, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and automated external defibrillator (AED) awareness and training i
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n three underserved communities in Brazil.
Methods: A cross-sectional, population-based survey of non-institutionalised adults age 30 or greater was conducted in three municipalities in Eastern Brazil. Data were analysed as survey-weighted percentages of the sampled populations.
Results: 3035 surveys were completed. Overall, one-third of respondents was unable to identify at least one cardiovascular disease risk factor and 25% unable to identify at least one myocardial infarction symptom. A minority of respondents had received training in CPR or were able to identify an AED. Low levels of education and low socioeconomic status were consistent predictors of lower knowledge levels of cardiovascular disease risk factors, acute coronary syndrome symptoms and CPR and AED use.
Conclusions: In three municipalities in Eastern Brazil, overall public knowledge of cardiovascular disease risk factors and symptoms, as well as knowledge of appropriate CPR and AED use was low. Our findings indicate the need for interventions to improve public knowledge and response to acute cardiovascular events in Brazil as a first step towards improving health outcomes in this population. Significant heterogeneity in knowledge seen across sites and socioeconomic strata indicates a need to appropriately target such interventions.
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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV‑2) causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels;
Patients with cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and established cardiovascular disease (CVD) represent a vulnerab
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le population when suffering from COVID-19;
Patients with cardiac injury in the context of COVID-19 have an increased risk of morbidity and mortality
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Soil transmitted helminth (STH) infections are among the most common human infections worldwide with over 1 billion people affected. Many estimates of STH infection are often based on school-aged children (SAC). This study produced predictive risk-m
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aps of STH on a more finite scale, estimated the number of people infected, and the amount of drug required for preventive chemotherapy (PC) in Ogun state, Nigeria. Georeferenced STH infection data obtained from a cross-sectional survey at 33 locations between July 2016 and November 2018, together with remotely-sensed environmental and socio-economic data were analyzed using Bayesian geostatistical modelling. Stepwise variable selection procedure was employed to select a parsimonious set of predictors to predict risk and spatial distribution of STH infections. The number of persons (pre-school ages children, SAC and adults) infected with STH were estimated, with the amount of tablets needed for preventive chemotherapy. An overall prevalence of 17.2% (95% CI 14.9, 19.5) was recorded for any STH infection. Ascaris lumbricoides infections was the most predominant, with an overall prevalence of 13.6% (95% CI 11.5, 15.7), while Hookworm and Trichuris trichiura had overall prevalence of 4.6% (95% CI 3.3, 5.9) and 1.7% (95% CI 0.9, 2.4), respectively. The model-based prevalence predictions ranged from 5.0 to 23.8% for Ascaris lumbricoides, from 2.0 to 14.5% for hookworms, and from 0.1 to 5.7% for Trichuris trichiura across the implementation units. The predictive maps revealed a spatial pattern of high risk in the central, western and on the border of Republic of Benin. The model identified soil pH, soil moisture and elevation as the main predictors of infection for A. lumbricoides, Hookworms and T. trichiura respectively. About 50% (10/20) of the implementation units require biannual rounds of mass drug administration. Approximately, a total of 1.1 million persons were infected and require 7.8 million doses. However, a sub-total of 375,374 SAC were estimated to be infected, requiring 2.7 million doses. Our predictive risk maps and estimated PC needs provide useful information for the elimination of STH, either for resource acquisition or identifying priority areas for delivery of interventions in Ogun State, Nigeria.
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Vitamin A deficiency is a risk factor for blindness and for mortality from measles and diarrhoea in children aged 6–59 months. We aimed to estimate trends in the prevalence of vitamin A defi ciency between 1991 and 2013 and its mortality burden in
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low-income and middle-income countries.
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Journal of the International AIDS Society 2017, vol. 20:e25026
In Myanmar, men who have sex with men (MSM) experience high risk of HIV infection. However, access to HIV testing and prevention services remains a challenge among this marginalized ... population. The objective of this study was to estimate population prevalence and correlates of prior HIV testing among young MSM (YMSM) and informs the development of HIV testing and intervention programmes that respond to the specific needs of this population.
https://doi.org/10.1002/jia2.25026 more
In Myanmar, men who have sex with men (MSM) experience high risk of HIV infection. However, access to HIV testing and prevention services remains a challenge among this marginalized ... population. The objective of this study was to estimate population prevalence and correlates of prior HIV testing among young MSM (YMSM) and informs the development of HIV testing and intervention programmes that respond to the specific needs of this population.
https://doi.org/10.1002/jia2.25026 more
Background
Asthma remains highly prevalent, with more severe symptoms in low-income to middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with high-income countries. Identifying risk factors for severe asthma symptoms can assist with improving outcomes. We
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aimed to determine the prevalence, severity and risk factors for asthma in adolescents in an LMIC.
Methods
A cross-sectional survey using the Global Asthma Network written and video questionnaires was conducted in adolescents aged 13 and 14 from randomly selected schools in Durban, South Africa, between May 2019 and June 2021.
Results
A total of 3957 adolescents (51.9% female) were included. The prevalence of lifetime, current and severe asthma was 24.6%, 13.7% and 9.1%, respectively. Of those with current and severe asthma symptoms; 38.9% (n=211/543) and 40.7% (n=147/361) had doctor-diagnosed asthma; of these, 72.0% (n=152/211) and 70.7% (n=104/147), respectively, reported using inhaled medication in the last 12 months. Short-acting beta agonists (80.4%) were more commonly used than inhaled corticosteroids (13.7%). Severe asthma was associated with: fee-paying school quintile (adjusted OR (CI)): 1.78 (1.27 to 2.48), overweight (1.60 (1.15 to 2.22)), exposure to traffic pollution (1.42 (1.11 to 1.82)), tobacco smoking (2.06 (1.15 to 3.68)), rhinoconjunctivitis (3.62 (2.80 to 4.67)) and eczema (2.24 (1.59 to 3.14)), all p<0.01.
Conclusion
Asthma prevalence in this population (13.7%) is higher than the global average (10.4%). Although common, severe asthma symptoms are underdiagnosed and associated with atopy, environmental and lifestyle factors. Equitable access to affordable essential controller inhaled medicines addressing the disproportionate burden of asthma is needed in this setting.
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This is a case-ascertained prospective investigation of all identified health care contacts working in a health care facility in which a laboratory confirmed 2019-nCoV infected patient (see 2.2 Study population) receives care. Note that this study c
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an be done in health care facilities at all 3 levels of a health system – not just in hospitals. It is intended to provide epidemiological and serologic information which will inform the identification of risk factors 2019-nCoV infection among health care workers.
There are three primary objectives of this investigation among health care workers in a health care setting where a 2019-nCoV infected patient is being cared for:
To better understand the extent of human-to-human transmission among health care workers, by estimating the secondary infection rate1 for health care worker contacts at an individual level.
To characterize the range of clinical presentation of infection and the risk factors for infection among health care workers.
To evaluate effectiveness of infection prevention and control measures among health care workers
To evaluate effectiveness of infection prevention and control programmes at health facility and national level
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Surveillance tools for meningitis sentinel hospital surveillance: field guide to rapidly estimate the hospital catchment population (denominator) and the annual rate of hospitalisations
World Health Organization
(2015)
The document will provide information for Ministries of Health and hospital sentinel sites on why and how to determine the denominator of at-risk children <5 years of age and rate of meningitis hospitalizations for a sentinel hospital site conducting IB-VPD surveillanc
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e. Such a methodology is currently unavailable and this estimation is critical to enable interpretation of surveillance data, particularly pre- and post- vaccine introduction
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