Inferences through Machine Learning.Background Report.
What are the major origins and drivers of different types of conflict? Sorting out the main
causes of conflict and war is difficult and often shaped by ideological believes. Even today,
historians and political scientists have discussions on
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the primary causes of the First World
War. There are several types of conflict, ranging from international and civil wars to local
conflicts, riots and revolution. And there are many theories that explain these different types
of conflict, which mostly focus on economic conditions and a range of factors that can foster
grievances and greed, creating incentives to initiate or join a conflict
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Published: November 24, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000938
Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some to increase, others to decrease, and many to shift their distributions. There have been several important advances in understanding the
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role of climate and climate change on wildlife and human infectious disease dynamics over the past several years. This essay examines 3 major areas of advancement, which include improvements to mechanistic disease models, investigations into the importance of climate variability to disease dynamics, and understanding the consequences of thermal mismatches between host and parasites. Applying the new information derived from these advances to climate–disease models and addressing the pressing knowledge gaps that we identify should improve the capacity to predict how climate change will affect disease risk for both wildlife and humans.
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Environmental Research Volume 151, November 2016, Pages 115-123
Dengue is the world’s most important arboviral disease in terms of number of people affected. Over the past 50 years, incidence increased 30-fold: there were approximately 390 million infections in 2010. Globalization, trade, travel,
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demographic trends, and warming temperatures are associated with the recent spread of the primary vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and of dengue. Overall, models project that new geographic areas along the fringe of current geographic ranges for Aedes will become environmentally suitable for the mosquito’s lifecycle, and for dengue transmission. Many endemic countries where dengue is likely to spread further have underdeveloped health systems, increasing the substantial challenges of disease prevention and control. Control focuses on management of Aedes, although these efforts have typically had limited effectiveness in preventing outbreaks. New prevention and control efforts are needed to counter the potential consequences of climate change on the geographic range and incidence of dengue, including novel methods of vector control and dengue vaccines.
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PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also
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one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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The Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and the Caribbean of ECLAC presents a set of basic statistics on the economic, sociodemographic and environmental situation of the region during a specific time period.
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu
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re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
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Journal of Land Use Science, 16:3, 223-239, DOI: 10.1080/1747423X.2021.1933226
The Faster We Go, the Health We'll Be.
The report outlines five climate solutions that research shows will deliver immediate, often localized, health and equity benefits. Our focus is on the solutions that proactively advance both health and health equity, recognizing that some of us face greater h
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ealth risks than others.
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Joule 5, 2687–2714 October 20, 2021 Cell Press
Waste Management & Research 39(1) DOI: 10.1177/0734242X211029175
Constraints, Technologies, Policies and Processes
Briefing Note no. 80 November 2015
Promoting health and well-being throughout Europe
The Lab identifies, develops, and launches sustainable finance
instruments that can drive billions to a low-carbon economy. The
2019 Global Lab Cycle targets four specific sectors across
mitigation and adaptation: blue carbon in marine & coastal
ecosystems; sustainable agriculture for smallholde
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rs in West and
Central Africa; sustainable energy access; and sustainable cities
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20 April 2022. The response to the COVID-19 pandemic continues to adversely affect essential TB services in many countries. A first report of case studies was published in 2021 comprising 23 examples of innovative interventions implemented by countries to effectively respond to disruptions of TB ser
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vices caused or exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This second, consolidated report incorporates new case studies, as well as updates to previously reported case studies
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This guideline aims to improve the quality of essential, routine postnatal care for women and newborns with the ultimate goal of improving maternal and newborn health and well-being. It recognizes a “positive postnatal experience” as a significant end point for all women giving birth and their n
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ewborns, laying the platform for improved short- and long-term health and well-being. A positive postnatal experience is defined as one in which women, newborns, partners, parents, caregivers and families receive information, reassurance and support in a consistent manner from motivated health workers; where a resourced and flexible health system recognizes the needs of women and babies, and respects their cultural context.
This is a consolidated guideline of new and existing recommendations on routine postnatal care for women and newborns receiving facility- or community-based postnatal care in any resource setting.
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This manual for trainers outlines the information and materials required to undertake training in line with the WASH FIT Guide, including background documents, the content of the recommended training modules and training evaluation approaches. The modular approach outlined enables trainers to decide
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on all topics that are most useful to support the delivery of targeted training at the local level. It also provides sample training schedules, evaluation forms and is linked to a full set of interactive, adult-learning focused, training slides.
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Kiel Policy Brief, Ukraine Special 1, March 2022.Many African countries heavily rely on imports of agricultural commodities and agricultural inputs from Ukraine and Russia, for example wheat, other grains, and fertilizer. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global access to grains due to re
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duced production, exports, and increased trade costs. This policy brief investigates the possible long-term consequences of the conflict on food security in Africa
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