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A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, ... speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at similar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Pharmaceutical system assessments are useful to diagnose problems, plan major projects and interventions, monitor progress, and compare the performance of one system with that of another. Recent years have seen a growth in demand for such assessment...
This guidance is intended for use in developing standalone TB strategic plans, or TB interventions as part of multidisease or health sector plans. It describes key considerations and steps for strategic planning for TB in line with the World Health ...
Climate change (CC) impacts on health outcomes, both direct and indirect, are sufficient to jeopardize achieving the World Bank Group’s visions and agendas in poverty reduction, population resilience, and health, nutrition and population (HNP). In...
Every day in 2020, approximately 800 women died from preventable causes related to pregnancy and childbirth - meaning that a woman dies around every two minutes.
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.1 is to reduce maternal mortality to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births by ...
The definition of Official Development Assistance (ODA) has for 40 years been the global standard for measuring donor efforts in supporting develop...
WHO has a unique combination of technical public health and scientific expertise, and a global operational footprint, with field offices in more than 150 countries. In 2020, this global, technical, ...
The report also provides country-specific examples showing how direct engagement translated into the adoption of concrete measures, including national legislation and policies. Finally, ... report presents key recommendations aimed at intensifying the actions of the international and the humanitarian communities and strengthening the programmatic response to better target and address the needs and vulnerabilities of all children living in situations of armed conflict.
Full Report and Fact Sheet available in English, French, Spanish and Arabic
A statistical overview and exploration of the dynamics of change
The COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (SPRP) 2021 Monitoring and Evaluation Framework tracks global progress against the COVID-19 S...
Health security funding is intended to improve capacities for preventing, detecting, and responding to public health emergencies. Recent years have witnessed substantial increases in the amounts of ...
Over the past two decades, China has become a distinctive and increasingly important donor of development assistance for health (DAH). However, little is known about what factors influence China’s priority-setting for DAH. In this study, we provid...
OECD Development Policy Tools
Recognising that donor policies and responses constantly evolve, this guidance recommends that donors operating in situations of forced displacement prioritise three broad areas of work, where they can best contribute to existing capacities at ... national, regional and global levels.
Recognising that donor policies and responses constantly evolve, this guidance recommends that donors operating in situations of forced displacement prioritise three broad areas of work, where they can best contribute to existing capacities at ... national, regional and global levels.
It is of utmost importance to low-income countries and some lower-middle income nations in the time of the SDG period that they are not on course to accomplish ... health-related SDG 3 and its targets until 2030. If we honestly intend to support this goal and realize it for the people living in the regions that are facing the lowest survival chances, we also need to recognize that these countries are far from being in a position to raise the necessary resources solely with their own means.
Prior research has considered donor funding for developing world health by recipient and donor country but not by disease. Examining funding by disease is critical since diseases may be in competiti...
The aim of the Technical Brief is to offer guidance to education professionals on how to integrate Mental Health and Psychosocial Support into Education in Emergencies programming. An overview of Me...
What does the future hold for the world’s children?
In many ways, the future is now. Today’s actions and decisions will determine ... future children inherit.
Unfortunately, today's children live in a world fraught with crises, poverty and discrimination. Where far too many are deprived of opportunities to meet their full potential.
We can and must do better.
The future of childhood hangs in the balance.
This year’s State of the World’s Children Report examines the forces and trends shaping our world today and reflects on how they might shape the future.
The report explores three megatrends that will profoundly impact children’s lives between now and 2050: demographics shifts, the climate and environmental crises and frontier technologies.
It also presents three future scenarios – possible outcomes, not predictions – for how children could experience the world of 2050.
As we consider what we can do today, our responsibility is clear: now is the time to shape a better future for every child.
Beat the heat: child health amid heatwaves in Europe and Central Asia finds that half of these children died from heat-related illnesses in their first year of life. Most children died during the su...
The State of the World’s Children 2013: Children with Disabilities examines the barriers – from inaccessible buildings to dismissive attitudes,...
After the earthquake in Türkiye-Syria in February 2023 an emergency response was provided to the affected population. Young persons with disabilities were one of ... social groups most affected by the crisis. These were either young persons who acquired a disability due to the earthquake, or young persons with disabilities who were further isolated after the crisis due to compounded and structural barriers.
In response to this situation the Compact for Young People in Humanitarian Action reached out to the Youth2030 Disability Task Team with the aim of supporting humanitarian teams in the field. The current version of this checklist has been developed for a broader context not only for the Türkiye-Syria case, but also for other humanitarian crises. This checklist aims to provide guidance on how to ensure meaningful participation of young persons with disabilities in local humanitarian response. The expected users are humanitarian actors, especially those working in the field.
