This report presents findings from research conducted by Economist Impact to assess the health, demographic, social and economic impacts associated with different scenarios for financing the HIV epidemic across 13 selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The sponsorship of UNAIDS towards this repor...t is gratefully acknowledged. However, the findings and ideas expressed herein represent those of Economist Impact. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UNAIDS, nor do they engage the responsibility of UNAIDS.
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Progress in tuberculosis control worldwide, including achievement of 2015 global targets, requires adequate financing sustained for many years. WHO began yearly monitoring of tuberculosis funding in 2002. We used data reported to WHO to analyse tuberculosis funding from governments and international... donors (in real terms, constant 2011 US$) and associated progress in tuberculosis control in low-income and middle-income countries between 2002 and 2011. We then assessed funding needed to 2015 and how this funding could be mobilised.
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Childhood immunisation is one of the most cost-effective health interventions. However, despite its known value, global access to vaccines remains far from complete. Although supply-side constraints lead to inadequate vaccine coverage in many health systems, there is no comprehensive analysis of the... funding for immunisation. We aimed to fill this gap by generating estimates of funding for immunisation disaggregated by the source of funding and the type of activities in order to highlight the funding landscape for immunisation and inform policy making.
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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for major societal transformations that will require significant fiscal outlays as well as private investments. The fiscal outlays cover public investments, the public provision of social services, and social protection for vulnerable populations. The ke...y message of this paper, building on recent reports by the IMF and SDSN (IMF, 2019b; SDSN, 2018) is that the governments of Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) will require a substantial increase in fiscal (budget) revenues, far beyond what they can achieve by their own fiscal reforms. For this reason, SDG financing will require substantial international cooperation to enable the LIDCs to finance their SDG fiscal outlays. One important source of increased revenues should be the globally coordinated taxation of ultra-high-net worth assets. Today’s ultra-rich should help to pay for the survival and basic needs of the world’s poorest people.
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Tracking global malaria spending provides insight into how far the world is from reaching the malaria funding target of $6·6 billion annually by 2020. Because most countries with a high burden of malaria are low income or lower-middle income, mobilising additional government resources for malaria m...ight be challenging.
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Estimates of government spending and development assistance for tuberculosis exist, but less is known
about out-of-pocket and prepaid private spending. We aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of total spending on
tuberculosis in low-income and middle-income countries for 2000–17.
Global HIV control funding falls short of need. To maximize health outcomes, it is critical that national governments sustain reasonable commitments, and that international donor assistance be distributed according to country needs and funding gaps. We develop a country classification framework in t...erms of actual versus expected national domestic funding, considering resource needs and donor financing. With UNAIDS and World Bank data, we examine domestic and donor HIV program funding in relation to need in 84 low- and middle-income countries. We estimate expected domestic contributions per person living with HIV (PLWH) as a function of per capita income, relative size of the health sector, and per capita foreign debt service.
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Background
The ambitious development agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires substantial investments across several sectors, including for SDG 3 (healthy lives and wellbeing). No estimates of the additional resources needed to strengthen comprehensive health service delivery to...wards the attainment of SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries have been published.
Methods
We developed a framework for health systems strengthening, within which population-level and individual-level health service coverage is gradually scaled up over time. We developed projections for 67 low-income and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030, representing 95% of the total population in low-income and middle-income countries. We considered four service delivery platforms, and modelled two scenarios with differing levels of ambition: a progress scenario, in which countries’ advancement towards global targets is constrained by their health system’s assumed absorptive capacity, and an ambitious scenario, in which most countries attain the global targets. We estimated the associated costs and health effects, including reduced prevalence of illness, lives saved, and increases in life expectancy. We projected available funding by country and year, taking into account economic growth and anticipated allocation towards the health sector, to allow for an analysis of affordability and financial sustainability.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a double shock - health and economic. As of March 1, 2021, COVID-19 has cost more than 2.5 million lives and triggered an economic recession surpassing any economic downturn since World War II.
Part I of this paper explores the impact of this current macro-fisc...al outlook on the three primary sources of health spending. Drawing on experiences from previous economic crises, scenario analyses suggest a fall in government per capita spending on health in 2021 and 2022 unless governments make bold choices to increase the share of health in general government spending.
Part II of the paper discusses policy options to meet the spending needs in health. These options encompass strategies to make fiscal adjustments work and channel funds where they are most needed, as well as policies to stabilize the balance sheets of social health insurance (SHI) schemes. The paper explains how the health sector can play an active role in expanding fiscal space, contributing to tax reforms, most importantly pro-health taxes, and mobilizing and absorbing external financing, including debt relief.
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Background: The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in international and domestic funding for malaria control, coupled with important declines in malaria incidence and mortality in some regions of the world. As the ongoing climate of financial uncertainty places strains on investment in global ...health, there is an increasing need to audit the origin, recipients and geographical distribution of funding for malaria control relative to populations at risk of the disease. Methods: A comprehensive review of malaria control funding from international donors, bilateral sources and national governments was undertaken to reconstruct total funding by country for each year 2006 to 2010. Regions at risk from Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax transmission were identified using global risk maps for 2010 and funding was assessed relative to populations at risk. Those nations with unequal funding relative to a regional average were identified and potential explanations highlighted, such as differences in national policies, government inaction or donor neglect.
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Objective: There are an estimated 38 million people with HIV (PWH), with significant economic consequences. We aimed to collate global lifetime costs for managing HIV.
Design: We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42020184490) using five databases from 1999 to 2019.
Methods: Studies were ...included if they reported primary data on lifetime costs for PWH. Two reviewers independently assessed the titles and abstracts, and data were extracted from full texts: lifetime cost, year of currency, country of currency, discount rate, time horizon, perspective, method used to estimate cost and cost items included. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the discounted lifetime costs [2019 United States dollars (USD)].
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Background: Primary health care (PHC) is a driving force for advancing towards universal health coverage (UHC). PHC-oriented health systems bring enormous benefits but require substantial financial investments. Here, we aim to present measures for PHC investments and project the associated resource ...needs. Methods: This modelling study analysed data from 67 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Recognising the variation in PHC services among countries, we propose three measures for PHC, with different scope for included interventions and system strengthening. Measure 1 is centred on public health interventions and outpatient care; measure 2 adds general inpatient care; and measure 3 further adds cross-sectoral activities. Cost components included in each measure were based on the Declaration of Astana, informed by work delineating PHC within health accounts, and finalised through an expert and country validation meeting. We extracted the subset of PHC costs for each measure from WHO’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) price tag for the 67 LMICs, and projected the associated health impact. Estimates of financial resource need, health workforce, and outpatient visits are presented as PHC investment guide posts for LMICs.
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This paper outlines the background to and design of the Health Financing Progress Matrix (HFPM), WHO’s standardized qualitative approach to assessing country health financing systems. Primarily qualitative in nature, the HFPM assesses a country’s health financing institutions, processes, policie...s and their implementation, benchmarked against good practice in the context of universal health coverage (UHC). The paper also details processes which ensure that country assessments are credible. While health financing is only one of the core functions of a health system, it significantly influences both the extent to which the population accesses health services, and the extent to which they face financial hardship in the process. Through a forward-looking assessment process the HFPM contributes to building resilience within health systems, which also contributes directly to improved emergency preparedness and response.
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This paper introduces a new dataset of official financing—including foreign aid and other forms of concessional and non-concessional state financing—from China to 138 countries between 2000 and 2014. We use these data to investigate whether and to what extent Chinese aid affects economic growth ...in recipient countries. To account for the endogeneity of aid, we employ an instrumental-variables strategy that relies on exogenous variation in the supply of Chinese aid over time resulting from changes in Chinese steel production. Variation across recipient countries results from a country’s probability of receiving aid. Controlling for year- and recipient-fixed effects that capture the levels of these variables, their interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument. Our results show that Chinese official development assistance (ODA) boosts economic growth in recipient countries. For the average recipient country, we estimate that one additional Chinese ODA project produces a 0.7 percentage point increase in economic growth two years after the project is committed. We also benchmark the effectiveness of Chinese aid vis-á-vis the World Bank, the United States, and all members of the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC).
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AidData has developed a set of open source data collection methods to track project-level data on suppliers of official finance who do not participate in global reporting systems. This codebook outlines the version 1.1 set of TUFF procedures that have been developed, tested, refined, and implemented... by AidData researchers and affiliated faculty at the College of William & Mary and Brigham Young University.
In the first iteration of this codebook, AidData's Media-Based Data Collection Methodology, Version 1.0, we referred to our data collection procedures as a “media-based data collection” (MBDC) methodology. The term “media-based” was misleading, as the methodology does not rely exclusively on media reports; rather, media reports are used only as a departure point, and are supplemented with case studies undertaken by scholars and non-governmental organizations, project inventories supplied through Chinese embassy websites, and grants and loan data published by recipient governments. In the interest of providing greater clarity, we now refer to our methodology for systematically gathering open source development finance information as the Tracking Underreported Financial Flows (TUFF) methodology. This codebook outlines the set of TUFF procedures that have been developed, tested, refined, and implemented by AidData staff and affiliated faculty at the College of William & Mary and Brigham Young University.
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China and other so-called “emerging” donors and creditors are fundamentally changing the international development finance landscape; however, many of these actors do not participate in existing global reporting systems, such as the OECD’s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the International ...Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI).
To address this challenge and help those who seek to understand the nature, distribution, and effects of development finance from emerging donors and creditors, AidData developed the Tracking Underreported Financial Flows (TUFF) in collaboration with an international network of researchers from Harvard University, Heidelberg University, the University of Göttingen, the University of Cape Town, Brigham Young University, and William and Mary.
The methodology codifies a systematic, transparent, and replicable set of procedures that facilitate the collection of information about aid and credit from official sector donors and lenders who do not publish comprehensive or detailed information about their overseas activities. It does so by synthesizing and standardizing vast amounts of unstructured, open-source, project-level information published by governments, intergovernmental organizations, companies, nongovernmental organizations, journalists, and research institutions.
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The majority of Countdown countries did not reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 4) on reducing child mortality, despite the fact that donor funding to the health sector has drastically increased. When tracking aid invested in child survival, previous studies have exclusively focused on... aid targeting reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH). We take a multi-sectoral approach and extend the estimation to the four sectors that determine child survival: health (RMNCH and non-RMNCH), education, water and sanitation, and food and humanitarian assistance (Food/HA). Methods and findings: Using donor reported data, obtained mainly from the OECD Creditor Reporting System and Development Assistance Committee, we tracked the level and trends of aid (in grants or loans) disbursed to each of the four sectors at the global, regional, and country levels. We performed detailed analyses on missing data and conducted imputation with various methods. To identify aid projects for RMNCH, we developed an identification strategy that combined keyword searches and manual coding. To quantify aid for RMNCH in projects with multiple purposes, we adopted an integrated approach and produced the lower and upper bounds of estimates for RMNCH, so as to avoid making assumptions or using weak evidence for allocation. We checked the sensitivity of trends to the estimation methods and compared our estimates to that produced by other studies. Our study yielded time-series and recipient-specific annual estimates of aid disbursed to each sector, as well as their lower- and upper-bounds in 134 countries between 2000 and 2014, with a specific focus on Countdown countries. We found that the upper-bound estimates of total aid disbursed to the four sectors in 134 countries rose from US$ 22.62 billion in 2000 to US$ 59.29 billion in
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Mental disorders are a leading cause of the global burden of disease, and the provision of mental health services in developing countries remains very limited and far from equitable. Using the Creditor Reporting System, we estimate the amounts and patterns of development assistance for global mental... health (DAMH) between 2007 and 2013. This allows us to examine how well international donors have responded to calls by global mental health advocates to scale up evidence-based services. Although DAMH did increase between 2007 and 2013, it remains low both in absolute terms and as a proportion of total development assistance for health (DAH). The average annual DAMH between 2007 and 2013 was US$133.57 million, and the proportion of DAH attributed to mental health is less than 1%. Approximately 48% of total DAMH was for humanitarian assistance, education, and civil services. More annual DAMH was channelled into the nonpublic sector than the public sector. Despite an expanding body of evidence suggesting that sustainable mental health care can be effectively integrated into existing health systems at relatively low cost, mental health has not received significant development assistance.
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Japan has been implementing projects of global extension of medical technologies under an official development assistance policy to improve public health and medicine by promoting Japanese medical technologies worldwide. The current work examines the impact and goals of implementing this new scheme.... The scheme has involved dozens of projects that sent Japanese experts to partner countries and that invited their counterparts to Japan to showcase Japanese medical technologies. Approximately 50 projects have been implemented in 24 countries over 5 years, and 19,638 individuals have been trained. As a result, the introduced technology was adopted in national guidelines in 4 projects and the introduced equipment was procured in the partner country in 17 projects. In total, 912,334 individuals have benefitted from the introduction of these medical technologies. The concept of "creating shared value" (CSV) could help promote project success by both creating economic value and encouraging social progress. However, the sustainability of that business model remains in question in terms of the internationalization of CSV. Several successful projects improved medical care and led to new business opportunities.
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Following publication of the original article, the authors reported a conversion error that concerned the estimated amounts of development assistance for health (DAH) for 2012–2015; when the authors converted the current prices of 2012–2015 to the constant prices of 2016 using the gross domestic... product (GDP) deflator, they erroneously multiplied the current prices by the GDP deflator instead of dividing them.
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