From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2021, extreme weather events have affected at least 139.2 million people and killed at least 17,242 people in at least 433 unique events. These figures are certainly an underestimate, as they do not include estimates of numbers of people affected ...by extreme temperatures, or mortality during drought events.
One dimension of the compound risk of COVID-19 and climate extremes was the additional challenge of preparing for and responding to disasters during the pandemic, such as the constraints of physical distancing during evacuations and response operations.
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Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as cancer, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases and their risk factors are an increasing public health and development challenge in Kyrgyzstan. This report provides evidence through three analyses that NCDs reduce economic outp...ut and discusses potential options in response, outlining details of their relative returns on investment. An economic burden analysis shows that economic losses from NCDs are equivalent to 3.9% of gross domestic product. An intervention costing analysis provides an estimate of the funding required to implement a set of policy interventions for prevention and clinical interventions. A cost–benefit analysis compares these implementation costs with the estimated health gains and identifies which policy packages would give the greatest returns on investment.
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The WHO Global strategy on human resources for health: workforce 2030 encourages development partners and global health initiatives to leverage their support to health systems in countries to sustainably strengthen the health workforce. To assess the impact of these investments, a methodology was de...veloped and pilot tested by WHO.
The impact assessment tool (consisting of an MS Excel calculator with two subsets) supports users to:
• assess and quantify the health impact of HRH investments made in the context of HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria programmes through their modelled effect on health service coverage of these three diseases; and
• provide aggregate indicative estimates of the range of health workers required to attain high coverage of selected health services.
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Environmental Research Letters
Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they ha...ve primarily focused on the North Atlantic and North Pacific accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardize a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and coupled this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons, which is only approximately 1% of global plastic waste estimated to enter the ocean in the year 2010. These estimates are larger than previous global estimates, but vary widely because the scarcity of data in most of the world ocean, differences in model formulations, and fundamental knowledge gaps in the sources, transformations and fates of microplastics in the ocean.
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Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not be...en investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.
The Lancet Planetary Health Volume 5, ISSUE 7, e404-e414, July 01, 2021
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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu...re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
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Introduction: Considering the global prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a vaccine is being developed to control the disease as a complementary solution to hygiene measures—and better, in social terms, than social distancing. Given that a vaccine will eventually be produced, informa...tion will be needed to support a potential campaign to promote vaccination.
Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the variables affecting the likelihood of refusal and indecision toward a vaccine against COVID-19 and to determine the acceptance of the vaccine for different scenarios of effectiveness and side effects.
Materials and Methods: A multinomial logistic regression method based on the Health Belief Model was used to estimate the current methodology, using data obtained by an online anonymous survey of 370 respondents in Chile.
Results: The results indicate that 49% of respondents were willing to be vaccinated, with 28% undecided or 77% of individuals who would potentially be willing to be inoculated. The main variables that explained the probability of rejection or indecision were associated with the severity of COVID-19, such as, the side effects and effectiveness of the vaccine; perceived benefits, including immunity, decreased fear of contagion, and the protection of oneself and the environment; action signals, such as, responses from ones' family and the government, available information, and specialists' recommendations; and susceptibility, including the contagion rate per 1,000 inhabitants and relatives with COVID-19, among others. Our analysis of hypothetical vaccine scenarios revealed that individuals preferred less risky vaccines in terms of fewer side effects, rather than effectiveness. Additionally, the variables that explained the indecision toward or rejection of a potential COVID-19 vaccine could be used in designing public health policies.
Conclusions: We discovered that it is necessary to formulate specific, differentiated vaccination-promotion strategies for the anti-vaccine and undecided groups based on the factors that explain the probability of individuals refusing or expressing hesitation toward vaccination.
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A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Vol.399 Issue 10341 p.2129-2154
Human resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 s...trategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance.
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Lancet Oncol 2022; 23: e251–312Published OnlineMay 9, 2022 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00720-8
In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), urgent action is needed to curb a growing crisis in cancer incidence and mortality.
Without rapid interventions, data estimates show a major increase in cancer mo...rtality from 520 348 in 2020 to about
1 million deaths per year by 2030. Here, we detail the state of cancer in SSA, recommend key actions on the basis of
analysis, and highlight case studies and successful models that can be emulated, adapted, or improved across the
region to reduce the growing cancer crises. Recommended actions begin with the need to develop or update national
cancer control plans in each country. Plans must include childhood cancer plans, managing comorbidities such as
HIV and malnutrition, a reliable and predictable supply of medication, and the provision of psychosocial, supportive,
and palliative care. Plans should also engage traditional, complementary, and alternative medical practices employed
by more than 80% of SSA populations and pathways to reduce missed diagnoses and late referrals. More substantial
investment is needed in developing cancer registries and cancer diagnostics for core cancer tests.
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The LDHS provides an opportunity to inform policy and provide data for planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of national health programs. It is designed to provide up-to-date information on health indicators including fertility levels, sexual activity, fertility preferences, awaren...ess and use of family
planning methods, breastfeeding practices, nutritional status of children, early childhood and maternal mortality, maternal and child health, and awareness and behaviors regarding HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections. The study also incorporated measurements of HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis Cprevalence along with seroprevalence of Ebola virus disease antibodies, the results of which will be included in future addendums. In addition to presenting national estimates, the report provides estimates of key indicators for both rural and urban areas, the country’s 15 counties, and the capital, Monrovia.
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Despite high regional demand for vaccines valued at over US$ 1 billion annually, Africa’s vaccine industry provides only 0.1% of global supply. Vaccine inequity and hoarding at the start of the pandemic, which resulted in delays in obtaining COVID-19 doses, stimulated new resolve to address future... supply security. In 2021, the AU set a target to produce and supply more than 60% of the vaccine doses on the continent by 2040.
In the last 18 months alone, more than 30 new African manufacturing projects have been announced and estimates indicate that the African vaccine market across all existing and projected novel products could range between US$ 2.8 billion and US$ 5.6 billion by 2040*, demonstrating the potential for a thriving regional industry to emerge.
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The world faces grave consequences from the lack of available mental health services and treatment. Mental illness impacts every country, culture and community, with the World Health Organization (WHO) stating that 10% of the global burden of disease is related to mental, neurological and substance ...use disorders. In low-and middle-income countries, more than 75% of people with mental disorders receive no treatment at all for their disorder. During 2020, as a result of the global pandemic, 93% of countries reported their mental health services were either halted or interrupted (WHO, 2020e). WHO reported a 25% increase in depression and anxiety alone during the pandemic. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates depression and anxiety cost the global economy US $1 trillion dollars a year. All nurses have a health care role in mental health and substance use. ICN strongly advocates for the investment of further education and professional development in this area in order to support individuals and communities achieve the highest attainable standard of health which includes
physical, mental and social wellbeing.
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Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to elimina...te lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection.
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Female Genital Schistosomiasis (FGS) is a gynaecological disease caused by Schistosoma haematobium, a parasitic worm that is acquired by skin contact with freshwater contaminated by schistosome cerceriae. Communities in which the infection is most endemic have limited access to clean water and healt...hcare services. Up to 150 million adolescent girls and women are estimated to be at risk of FGS and about 16–56 milion womens are living with FGS, with the majority of these in sub-Saharan Africa. The variability of these estimates points to the fact that this neglected tropical disease is not well studied and frequently not prioritized by local, regional, and global health policy makers.
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Data from 22 countries across the region featured in the study shows children are bearing the heaviest burden of the economic crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. While children make up 25 per cent of the population, they account for nearly 40 per cent of the additional 10.4 million people experienc...ing poverty this year.
The Russian Federation has experienced the most significant increase in the number of children living in poverty, with an additional 2.8 million children now living in households below the poverty line, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total increase across the region. Ukraine is home to half a million additional children living in poverty, the second largest share. It is important to note that this is a conservative estimate which uses a GDP drop of 10 per cent.
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Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis is a life-threatening disease and recognized as an important cause of pulmonary haemorrhage syndrom...e, the lack of global estimates for morbidity and mortality has contributed to its neglected disease status
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Snakebite envenoming constitutes a serious medical condition that primarily affects residents of rural communities in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and New Guinea. It is an occupational, environmental, and domestic health hazard that exacerbates the already impoverished state of these communities. Co...nservative estimates indicate that, worldwide, more than 5 million people suffer snakebite every year, leading to 25,000–125,000 deaths, while an estimated 400,000 people are left with permanent disabilities.
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The NDMS&IP focuses on mainstreaming disability to promote equitable access to services in the six thematic areas of health, education, livelihoods, empowerment, and social inclusion and cross-cutting issues.
The first part of the NDMS&IP outlines incongruences between national and sectoral policie...s and pieces of legislation on one hand, and practice on the other and identifies key priority areas/themes of the strategy,
medium-term outcomes and strategies for each identified priority area/ theme. This process is largely informed by key findings and recommendations from a study on the Situation of Persons with Disabilities
in Malawi (CBMM/NAD, 2011). The study provides background descriptive information on existing national and sectoral policy and legal framework, level of access by children, adult women and males with disabilities to services in the areas of education, health, livelihoods and other social services as well as of participation by persons with disabilities through self-representation in development activities at various levels. A review of relevant documents at the international level further describes the disability situation in Malawi in the global context.
The second part of the NDMS&IP consists of the operational matrix, (Annex 1), a monitoring and evaluation framework (Annex 2) and budget estimates (Annex 3). This part outlines specific actions by various actors both in the public, private and civil society sectors to prioritise disability in their routine policy, programming, resource mobilisation and allocation, monitoring, evaluation and reporting routines. The action plan lays out priority sectors and concrete actions by setting out implementation schedules, defining targets, assigning responsibility to key duty bearers and rights holders for coordination, decision-making, monitoring and reporting, mobilisation and allocation and control of resources.
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Childhood immunisation is one of the most cost-effective health interventions. However, despite its known value, global access to vaccines remains far from complete. Although supply-side constraints lead to inadequate vaccine coverage in many health systems, there is no comprehensive analysis of the... funding for immunisation. We aimed to fill this gap by generating estimates of funding for immunisation disaggregated by the source of funding and the type of activities in order to highlight the funding landscape for immunisation and inform policy making.
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Global HIV control funding falls short of need. To maximize health outcomes, it is critical that national governments sustain reasonable commitments, and that international donor assistance be distributed according to country needs and funding gaps. We develop a country classification framework in t...erms of actual versus expected national domestic funding, considering resource needs and donor financing. With UNAIDS and World Bank data, we examine domestic and donor HIV program funding in relation to need in 84 low- and middle-income countries. We estimate expected domestic contributions per person living with HIV (PLWH) as a function of per capita income, relative size of the health sector, and per capita foreign debt service.
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