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Timely, reliable and complete information on financial resources in the health sector is critical for sound policy making and planning, particularly in developing countries where resources are both scarce and unpredictable. Health resource tracking has a long history and has seen renewed interest mo
...
re recently as pressure has mounted to improve accountability for the attainment of the health Millennium Development Goals. We review the methods used to track health resources and recent experiences of their application, with a view to identifying the major challenges that must be overcome if data availability and reliability are to improve.
more
Background
The ambitious development agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires substantial investments across several sectors, including for SDG 3 (healthy lives and wellbeing). No estimates of the additional resources needed to strengthen comprehensive health service delivery to
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wards the attainment of SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries have been published.
Methods
We developed a framework for health systems strengthening, within which population-level and individual-level health service coverage is gradually scaled up over time. We developed projections for 67 low-income and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030, representing 95% of the total population in low-income and middle-income countries. We considered four service delivery platforms, and modelled two scenarios with differing levels of ambition: a progress scenario, in which countries’ advancement towards global targets is constrained by their health system’s assumed absorptive capacity, and an ambitious scenario, in which most countries attain the global targets. We estimated the associated costs and health effects, including reduced prevalence of illness, lives saved, and increases in life expectancy. We projected available funding by country and year, taking into account economic growth and anticipated allocation towards the health sector, to allow for an analysis of affordability and financial sustainability.
more
Background
How to finance progress towards universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries is a subject of intense debate. We investigated how alternative tax systems aff ect the breadth, depth, and height of health system coverage.
...
Methods
We used cross-national longitudinal fi xed eff ects models to assess the relationships between total and diff erent types of tax revenue, health system coverage, and associated child and maternal health outcomes in 89 low-income and middle-income countries from 1995–2011.
more
Background: The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in international and domestic funding for malaria control, coupled with important declines in malaria incidence and mortality in some regions of the world. As the ongoing climate of financial uncertainty places strains on investment in global
...
health, there is an increasing need to audit the origin, recipients and geographical distribution of funding for malaria control relative to populations at risk of the disease. Methods: A comprehensive review of malaria control funding from international donors, bilateral sources and national governments was undertaken to reconstruct total funding by country for each year 2006 to 2010. Regions at risk from Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax transmission were identified using global risk maps for 2010 and funding was assessed relative to populations at risk. Those nations with unequal funding relative to a regional average were identified and potential explanations highlighted, such as differences in national policies, government inaction or donor neglect.
more
Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spendi
...
ng can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980–2015, and health spend data from 1995–2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted.
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Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards
...
UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country’s UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios.
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Background: Primary health care (PHC) is a driving force for advancing towards universal health coverage (UHC). PHC-oriented health systems bring enormous benefits but require substantial financial investments. Here, we aim to present measures for PHC investments and project the associated resource
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needs. Methods: This modelling study analysed data from 67 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Recognising the variation in PHC services among countries, we propose three measures for PHC, with different scope for included interventions and system strengthening. Measure 1 is centred on public health interventions and outpatient care; measure 2 adds general inpatient care; and measure 3 further adds cross-sectoral activities. Cost components included in each measure were based on the Declaration of Astana, informed by work delineating PHC within health accounts, and finalised through an expert and country validation meeting. We extracted the subset of PHC costs for each measure from WHO’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) price tag for the 67 LMICs, and projected the associated health impact. Estimates of financial resource need, health workforce, and outpatient visits are presented as PHC investment guide posts for LMICs.
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Background: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to
...
measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated.
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The importance of robust mortality surveillance systems cannot be overstated in an era marked by increasing global health challenges where health threats loom large and population dynamics continue to evolve. Accurate and timely mortality data is essential for identifying trends and detecting emergi
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ng health threats, evaluating the impact of interventions, and guiding evidence-based policy decisions.
This framework outlines a holistic approach to strengthening routine mortality surveillance systems, considering the unique contextual factors and challenges faced by African countries. It emphasizes the importance of establishing efficient data collection mechanisms, enhancing data quality and completeness, and promoting data sharing and collaboration among stakeholders.
Moreover, the framework recognizes the pivotal role of technology in the integration of data from fragmented mortality data sources. It highlights the potential of innovative data capture methods, advanced analytics, and real-time reporting systems to enhance mortality data’s accuracy, efficiency, and timeliness.
The continental framework for mortality surveillance aligns with Africa CDC’s mission and strategic goal by serving as a fundamental component in strengthening public health systems, enhancing disease surveillance capacities and capabilities, informing evidence-based policies and interventions, and promoting collaboration and coordination among African countries to address health challenges and improve health outcomes on the continent.
The successful implementation of this framework requires collective commitment and concerted efforts from governments, health institutions, and the international community. We hope this document will serve as a catalyst for transformative change, enabling countries to build resilient mortality surveillance systems that protect public health, save lives, and contribute to evidence-based decision-making.
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Background:Tracking aid fl ows helps to hold donors accountable and to compare the allocation of resources in relation to health need. With the use of data reported by donors in 2015, we provided estimates of offi cial development assistance and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (coll
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ectively termed ODA+) to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for 2013 and complete trends in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health support for the period 2003–13. Methods: We coded and analysed fi nancial disbursements to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health to all recipient countries from all donors reporting to the creditor reporting system database for the year 2013. We also revisited disbursement records for the years 2003–08 and coded disbursements relating to reproductive and sexual health activities resulting in the Countdown dataset for 2003–13. We matched this dataset to the 2015 creditor reporting system dataset and coded any unmatched creditor reporting system records. We analysed trends in ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for the period 2003–13, trends in donor contributions, disbursements to recipient countries, and targeting to need.
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Background: Foreign aid continues to play an essential role in health sector development in low-resource countries, particularly in terms of providing a vital portion of their health expenditures. However, the relationship between foreign aid allocation and malaria policy formulation and/or implemen
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tation among state aid recipients remains unknown.
Methods: Publicly available data were collected with the country as observational unit to set up the conceptual framework. The quality and strength of relationships between socioeconomic, environmental and institutional parameters were estimated by Pearson and polychoric correlations. A correlation matrix was explored by factor analysis.
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There has been no systematic comparison of how the policy response to past infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics was funded. This study aims to collate and analyse funding for the Ebola epidemic and Zika outbreak between 2014 and 2019 in order to understand the shortcomings in funding reporting
...
and suggest improvements. Methods: Data were collected via a literature review and analysis of financial reporting databases, including both amounts donated and received. Funding information from three financial databases was analysed: Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Development Assistance for Health database, the Georgetown Infectious Disease Atlas and the United Nations Financial Tracking Service. A systematic literature search strategy was devised and applied to seven databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, HMIC, Global Health, Scopus, Web of Science and EconLit. Funding information was extracted from articles meeting the eligibility criteria and measures were taken to avoid double counting. Funding was collated, then amounts and purposes were compared within, and between, data sources.
more
Background: Mental health has recently gained increasing attention on global health and development agendas, including calls for an increase in international funding. Few studies have previously characterized official development assistance for mental health (DAMH) in a nuanced and differentiated ma
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nner in order to support future funding efforts. Methods: Data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Creditor Reporting System were obtained through keyword searches. Projects were manually reviewed and categorized into projects dedicated entirely to mental health and projects that mention mental health (as one of many aims). Analysis of donor, recipient, and sector characteristics within and between categories was undertaken cumulatively and yearly.
more
The majority of Countdown countries did not reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 4) on reducing child mortality, despite the fact that donor funding to the health sector has drastically increased. When tracking aid invested in child survival, previous studies have exclusively focused on
...
aid targeting reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH). We take a multi-sectoral approach and extend the estimation to the four sectors that determine child survival: health (RMNCH and non-RMNCH), education, water and sanitation, and food and humanitarian assistance (Food/HA). Methods and findings: Using donor reported data, obtained mainly from the OECD Creditor Reporting System and Development Assistance Committee, we tracked the level and trends of aid (in grants or loans) disbursed to each of the four sectors at the global, regional, and country levels. We performed detailed analyses on missing data and conducted imputation with various methods. To identify aid projects for RMNCH, we developed an identification strategy that combined keyword searches and manual coding. To quantify aid for RMNCH in projects with multiple purposes, we adopted an integrated approach and produced the lower and upper bounds of estimates for RMNCH, so as to avoid making assumptions or using weak evidence for allocation. We checked the sensitivity of trends to the estimation methods and compared our estimates to that produced by other studies. Our study yielded time-series and recipient-specific annual estimates of aid disbursed to each sector, as well as their lower- and upper-bounds in 134 countries between 2000 and 2014, with a specific focus on Countdown countries. We found that the upper-bound estimates of total aid disbursed to the four sectors in 134 countries rose from US$ 22.62 billion in 2000 to US$ 59.29 billion in
more
Background: In 2015, 5.3 million babies died in the third trimester of pregnancy and first month following birth. Progress in reducing neonatal mortality and stillbirth rates has lagged behind the substantial progress in reducing postneonatal and maternal mortality rates. The benefits to prenatal an
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d neonatal health (PNH) from maternal and child health investments cannot be assumed. Methods: We analysed donor funding for PNH over the period 2003–2013. We used an exhaustive key term search followed by manual review and classification to identify official development assistance and private grant (ODA+) disbursement records in the Countdown to 2015 ODA+ Database.
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Background: To track donor assistance to maternal, newborn, and child health-related activities is necessary to assess progress towards Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 and to foster donor accountability. Our aim was to analyse aid flows to maternal, newborn, and child health for 2005 and 2006 a
...
nd trends between 2003 and 2006.
Methods: We analysed and coded the complete aid activities database for 2005 and 2006 with methods that we developed previously to track official development assistance. For the 68 Countdown priority countries, we report two indicators for use in monitoring donor disbursements: official development assistance to child health per child and official development assistance to maternal and neonatal health per livebirth.
more
Background: Achievement of high coverage of effective interventions and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5A requires adequate financing. Many of the 68 priority countries in the Countdown to 2015 Initiative are dependent on official development assistance (ODA). We analysed aid flows for ma
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ternal, newborn, and child health for 2007 and 2008 and updated previous estimates for 2003–06.
Methods: We manually coded and analysed the complete aid activities database of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for 2007 and 2008 with methods that we previously developed to track ODA. By use of newly available data for donor disbursement and population estimates, we revised data for 2003–06. We analysed the degree to which donors target their ODA to recipients with the greatest maternal and child health needs and examined trends over the 6 years.
more
Background: Tracking of financial resources to maternal, newborn, and child health provides crucial information to assess accountability of donors. We analysed official development assistance (ODA) flows to maternal, newborn, and child health for 2009 and 2010, and assessed progress since our monito
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ring began in 2003.
Methods: We coded and analysed all 2009 and 2010 aid activities from the database of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, according to a functional classification of activities and whether all or a proportion of the value of the disbursement contributed towards maternal, newborn, and child health. We analysed trends since 2003, and reported two indicators for monitoring donor disbursements: ODA to child health per child and ODA to maternal and newborn health per livebirth. We analysed the degree to which donors allocated ODA to 74 countries with the highest maternal and child mortality rates (Countdown priority countries) with time and by type of donor.
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Background: Tracking of aid resources to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) provides timely and crucial information to hold donors accountable. For the first time, we examine flows in official development assistance (ODA) and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (co
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llectively termed ODA+) in relation to the continuum of care for RMNCH and assess progress since 2003. Methods: We coded and analysed financial disbursements for maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) and for reproductive health (R*) to all recipient countries worldwide from all donors reporting to the creditor reporting system database for the years 2011–12. We also included grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. We analysed trends for MNCH for the period 2003–12 and for R* for the period 2009–12.
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Background: Timely reliable data on aid flows to maternal, newborn, and child health are essential for assessing the adequacy of current levels of funding, and to promote accountability among donors for attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for child and maternal health. We provide g
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lobal estimates of official development assistance (ODA) to maternal, newborn, and child health in 2003 and 2004, drawing on data reported by high-income donor countries and aid agencies to the Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation.
Methods: ODA was tracked on a project-by-project basis to 150 developing countries. We applied a standard definition of maternal, newborn, and child health across donors, and included not only funds specific to these areas, but also integrated health funds and disease-specific funds allocated on a proportional distribution basis, using appropriate factors.
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