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A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at simi
...
lar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
more
Regional Analysis. WPSAR Vol 7, No 2, 2016 | doi: 10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.4.010
DHS Further Analysis Reports No. 103
DHS Further Analysis Reports No 102
DHS Further Analysis Reports No. 101
Politique et Stratégies de Developpement du Sous Secteur Soins Infirmiers et Obstetricaux (2009-2013
Le développement et la performance de tous les secteurs vitaux passent par l’élaboration de politique et de stratégies cohérentes et pertinentes. En effet, pour éviter à notre pays de souffrir d’un malaise profond et multiforme qui se traduirait par une détérioration de la qualité de vi
...
e alors que les béninois aspirent fondamentalement au bien-être social, individuel et collectif, le gouvernement du Bénin a, dans une vision prospective, souhaité que tous les secteurs vitaux s’inscrivent dans la vision "Bénin ALAFIA 2025 "
more
Suivi de la déclaration politique sur le VIH de 2011 – Sénégal 2014
Programme commun des nations unies sur le VIH/SIDA
