This calculator implements a classical infectious disease model — SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infected → Removed), an idealized model of spread still used in frontlines of research e.g.
A paper presented at the 10th International Congress on Infectious Disease, Singapore
The frequency of infectious disease epidemics is increasing, and the role of the health sector in the management of epidemics is crucial in terms of response. In the context of ...e-to-highlight medbox">infectious disease epidemics, the use of climate-informed early warning systems (EWS) has the potential to increase the effectiveness of disease control by intervening before or at the beginning of the epidemic curve, instead of during the downward slope.
Currently, the initiation of interventions is heavily reliant on routine disease surveillance systems – data that often arrive too late for preventative response. However, forecasting of disease outbreaks using surveillance and weather information shows promising potential – there also remains further scope to examine seasonal climate forecasts. By combining these elements in new EWS based on computational models, it will be possible to improve both the timeliness and impact of disease control. The World Health Organization (WHO) is strengthening existing surveillance systems for infectious diseases to enable the development of more robust and timely EWS, which has resulted in the rapid development and innovation of EWS for disease outbreaks.
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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important... to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and future dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
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Pathogen genomic surveillance has become a priority for public health systems in recent years. Genomic sequencing is increasingly being used to characterize pathogens and monitor important public health priorities (e.g. poliovirus, influenza virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Vibrio cholerae, ant...imicrobial resistance (AMR)). The decrease in cost and time of sequencing and the exponential development of bioinformatic pipelines have played a critical role in integrating pathogen genomics into routine public health surveillance. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the role that sequencing plays in the surveillance of infectious diseases. Sequencing facilitates earlier detection, more accurate investigation of outbreaks, closer real-time monitoring of pathogen evolution and tailored development and evaluation of interventions to inform local to global public health decision-making and action. However, there remains a need to coordinate efforts, leverage and link existing surveillance and laboratory networks and capabilities, and systematically integrate genetic sequence data (GSD) with clinical and epidemiological data to strengthen its utility.
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When you hear, read, or watch news about an outbreak of an infectious disease such as Ebola, you may feel anxious and show signs of stress—even when the outbreak affects people far from where you ...live and you are at low or no risk of getting sick. These signs of stress are normal, and may be more likely or pronounced in people with loved ones in parts of the world affected by the outbreak. In the wake of an infectious disease outbreak, monitor your own physical and mental health. Know the signs of stress in yourself and your loved ones. Know how to relieve stress, and know when to get help.
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As of December 2018, CEPI has secured more than USD $747million towards its USD $1billion funding target, with financial support provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, the European Commission, and the governments of Australia, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway, an...d the UK. These funds are used to finance CEPI’s core activities in coordinating efforts and investing in the development of new vaccines and technologies to prevent and contain infectious disease epidemics.
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The current COVID-19 epidemic, like other infectious disease outbreak
previously, imposes to Child Protection actors to work and deliver services ...with
great creativity and flexibility, especially in those areas of interventions
traditionally relying on group-gathering (i.e. Child Friendly Spaces) and face-toface
interactions.
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There has been no systematic comparison of how the policy response to past infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics was funded. This study aims to collate and analyse funding for the Ebola ...lass="attribute-to-highlight medbox">epidemic and Zika outbreak between 2014 and 2019 in order to understand the shortcomings in funding reporting and suggest improvements. Methods: Data were collected via a literature review and analysis of financial reporting databases, including both amounts donated and received. Funding information from three financial databases was analysed: Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Development Assistance for Health database, the Georgetown Infectious Disease Atlas and the United Nations Financial Tracking Service. A systematic literature search strategy was devised and applied to seven databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, HMIC, Global Health, Scopus, Web of Science and EconLit. Funding information was extracted from articles meeting the eligibility criteria and measures were taken to avoid double counting. Funding was collated, then amounts and purposes were compared within, and between, data sources.
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Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) are a worldwide epidemic. Particularly, the most common diseases - Cardiovascular ...s="attribute-to-highlight medbox">diseases, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases (COPD), Chronic Kidney Diseases, Cancer, Diabetes, injuries and disabilities, EMT, oral, eye greatly contribute to the morbidity and mortality accounting for around 60% of all deaths worldwide. The disease pattern is also changing from infectious to chronic in Rwanda like other developing countries due to the epidemiological transition.
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The World Health Organization Global TB Report provides a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the TB epidemic, and progress in the response, at global, regional and country levels.
The 2022 edition features data on ...o-highlight medbox">disease trends and the response to the epidemic from 215 countries and areas, including all 194 World Health Organization (WHO) Member States. It provides a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the TB epidemic, progress in the response at global, regional and country levels, as well as on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB services.
TB remains one of the top infectious killers in the world. This year’s report presents data on an increase in the number of people falling ill with TB and drug resistant TB for the first time in many years. Increases were also reported on the number of TB deaths, highlighting the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises on the TB response that has reversed years of progress. It also presents the status of progress towards targets set at the first-ever United Nations General Assembly high-level meeting on TB in 2018 as well as the targets of the WHO End TB Strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Here you can download different charts about cases by world region, prevalence rates, and progress towards polio eradication and much more.
Polio is an infectious disease that is caused and trans...mitted by the poliovirus. Most infections do not lead to any symptoms, but—among the unvaccinated—between 1 in 50 and 1 in 500 infections result in paralysis. For some it leads to death.
At the start of the 20th century, polio was endemic worldwide, with large epidemic outbreaks every year. But with the development of two vaccines in the 1950s, countries began eliminating polio one by one.
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Healthy communities rely on well-functioning ecosystems. They provide clean air, fresh water, medicines and food security. They also limit disease and stabilize the climate. But biodiversity loss is happening at unprecedented rates, impacting human ...health worldwide, according to a new state of knowledge review of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and WHO.
The report synthesizes the available information on the most important inter-linkages between biodiversity, ecosystem stability, and epidemic infectious diseases such as the Ebola virus; and the connection between biodiversity, nutritional diversity and health. It also covers the potential benefits of closer partnerships between conservation and health, from improved surveillance of infectious diseases in wildlife and human populations, to promoting access to green spaces to promote physical activity and mental health. It also highlights the many areas in which further research is needed.
The Joint report hopes to provide a useful reference for the Sustainable Development Goals and post-2015 development agenda, which represents an unique opportunity to promote integrated approaches to biodiversity and health by highlighting that biodiversity contributes to human well-being, and highlighting that biodiversity needs protection for development to be sustainable.
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Antibiotics have been a critical public health tool since the discovery of Penicillin in 1928, saving the lives of millions of people around the world. In developing country like ours, where the burden of treatable disease is very high and access to... health facilities and laboratories is difficult, antibiotics have long acted as miracle drugs. Today, however, the emergence of drug
resistance in bacteria is reversing the miracles of the past eighty years, with drug choices for the treatment of many bacterial infections becoming increasingly limited, expensive, and in some cases, nonexistent. Diseases previously regarded as relatively easy to manage are much harder to treat as doctors must use “last-resort” drugs that are more costly, take longer to work
and are often unavailable or unaffordable in developing countries. Moreover, regular prescription of antibiotics, random treatment, over the counter sales, inadequate dosage, inclusion of antibiotics in animal feeds and agriculture has contributed equally to emergence of antibiotics resistance as silent epidemic within the country.
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Cognizant of the need for standardization of the response for COVID-19, the Federal Ministry of Health prepared this national guideline in an effort to contain the epidemic before it overwhelms the health care facilities. This national guideli...ne is expected to guide policy makers and health professionals at all level. A standardized approaches to will assist effective and efficient utilization of the limited resource of the country, minimizes dilemma and confusion on case management. To this effect, the FMOH has established National COVID-19 advisory committee. The committee members are from different specialties with very good experiences in disaster management and prevention and treatment of infectious disease epidemics. The input from the committee is used to make decisions at the national level about theepidemics in the weeks and months to come. The FMOH would like to acknowledge the members of the national advisory committee for their commitment and unreserved effort in finalizing the task in a very short period of time and advising the Ministry on various issues related to the epidemics at this critical time.
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Second edition. This revised edition incorporates experience gained in recent catastrophes, such as the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, the 2014/15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 earthquake in Nepal. It also contains a number of ...annexes, which cover such topics as handling the bodies of people who died from an infectious disease, burial planning and using DNA analysis in mass fatality events
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At the global, national, and regional levels, there are several guidelines and guides regarding the preparedness, prevention, surveillance, and control of diseases caused by respiratory viruses; most initiatives focus on specific virus events or cas...es. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it has been found that even when there are strategies designed and planned for pandemics, it is necessary to strengthen and improve them. Planning for imminent threats, including those posed by respiratory viruses, contributes to strengthening the core capacities of the International Health Regulations (IHR [2005])
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This report is primarily intended for the community of policymakers and researchers concerned about the rising risks of domestic, regional, and global infectious disease epidemics, and the collectiv...e failure to take the coordinated actions required to reduce such risks. These risks include the expected health, economic, and societal costs that are borne by countries, regions, and even all nations in the case of pandemics (which are worldwide epidemics). These risks also include the consequences of increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and its spread within regions and globally. A necessary first step is to monitor whether a broad range of stakeholders are acting to prevent outbreaks from becoming epidemics, whether their capacities to respond to epidemics are robust, and whether preparedness to respond to pandemics and limit the resulting economic and health damage is improving. Analyzing the adequacy of these efforts is vitally important for the decisions of policymakers to invest in the public health and disaster-risk management capacities. Early and effective control of disease outbreaks prevents substantial health and economic costs whether or not the disease can spread globally and become a pandemic.
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This volume on CVDs, renal, and respiratory disorders has particularly high value. It carries the potential to become the most effective game-changer in global health by helping all countries to combat, contain, and control the biggest killer presently prowling the globe and by enabling us to reach ...the 2030 goals for NCDs and health overall. As one who has witnessed the epidemic of CVDs advance menacingly across the world in the past four decades, I fervently hope that the clear and convincing messages conveyed by the extensively researched and elegantly communicated analyses in this volume will be heard, heeded, and harmonized with policy and practice in all countries.
Large file: 33 MB. Please download directly from the website link.
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Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis is a deadly infectious disease affecting West and Central Africa, South Sudan and Uganda, and transmitted between humans by tsetse flies. The ...ribute-to-highlight medbox">disease has caused several major epidemics, the latest one in the 1990s. Thanks to recent innovations such as rapid diagnostic tests for population screening, a single-dose oral treatment and a highly efficient vector control strategy, interruption of transmission of the causative parasite is now within reach. If indeed gHAT has an exclusively human reservoir, this could even result in eradication of the disease. Even if there were an animal reservoir, on the basis of epidemiological data, it plays a limited role. Maintaining adequate postelimination surveillance in known historic foci, using the newly developed tools, should be sufficient to prevent any future resurgence.
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