Past quantitative research on health financing has focused mostly on the level and distribution of total expenditure, with little emphasis on the specific role of public funds, despite their known importance for universal health coverage (UHC). Health Accounts data do not disaggregate public expendi...ture on health by source of funding. Achieving a better understanding of public financing for health in the context of the macro-fiscal and health financing environment is of fundamental importance to the development of future health financing policy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
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How do the global goals crowd in international financing and inform domestic priorities? A new AidData report assesses the historical baseline for funding to the SDGs.
Development assistance for health (DAH), the value of which peaked in 2013 and fell in 2015, is unlikely to rise substantially in the near future, increasing reliance on domestic and innovative financing sources to sustain health programmes in low-income and middle-income countries. We examined inno...vative financing instruments (IFIs)—financing schemes that generate and mobilise funds—to estimate the quantum of financing mobilised from 2002 to 2015. We identified ten IFIs, which mobilised US$8·9 billion (2·3% of overall DAH) in 2002–15. The funds generated by IFIs were channelled mostly through GAVI and the Global Fund, and used for programmes for new and underused vaccines, HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and maternal and child health. Vaccination programmes received the largest amount of funding ($2·6 billion), followed by HIV/AIDS ($1080·7 million) and malaria ($1028·9 million), with no discernible funding targeted to non-communicable diseases.
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Multiple pandemics, numerous outbreaks, thousands of lives lost and billions of dollars of national income wiped out—all since the turn of this century, in barely 17 years—and yet the world’s investments in pandemic preparedness and response remain woefully inadequate. We know by now that the ...world will see another pandemic in the not-too-distant future; that random mutations occur often enough in microbes that help them survive and adapt; that new pathogens will inevitably find a way to break through our defenses; and that there is the increased potential for intentional or accidental release of a synthesized agent. Every expert commentary and every analysis in recent years tells us that the costs of inaction are immense. And yet, as
the havoc caused by the last outbreak turns into a fading memory, we become complacent and relegate the case for investing in preparedness on a back burner, only to bring it to the forefront when the next outbreak occurs. The result is that the world remains scarily vulnerable.
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In 2015 around 15 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub–Saharan Africa. Sustained provision of ART, though both prudent and necessary, creates substantial long–term fiscal obligations for countries affected by HIV/ AIDS. As donor assistance for healt...h remains constrained, novel financing mechanisms are needed to augment funding domestic sources. We explore how Innovative Financing has been used to co–finance domestic HIV/AIDS responses. Based on analysis of non–health sectors, we identify innovative financing instruments that could be used in the HIV response.
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A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at simi...lar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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The final text of the outcome document adopted at the Third Internatinal Conference on Financing for Development (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 13–16 July 2015) and endorsed by the General Assembly in its resolution 69/313 of 27 July 2015.
Zero draft of the outcome document adopted at the Third Internatinal Conference on Financing for Development (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 13–16 July 2015) and endorsed by the General Assembly in its resolution 69/313 of 27 July 2015.
This important research emphasises that many governments are not meeting spending goals, and in many countries the financing gaps are so great that, even if they met the spending goals, expenditure would still fall short of what is needed (expenditure would cover only 64% of estimated future funding... requirements, leaving a gap of around a third of the total US$7·9 billion needed). Quantification of the gaps in domestic spending encourages us to consider whether the amount of funding is appropriate and how much more could and should be done to fight HIV/AIDS. The important question of how governments make allocation choices also comes to the forefront. The aim of this Comment is to draw attention to the many dimensions that contribute to the complexity of these decisions on health resource allocation.
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Background
How to finance progress towards universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries is a subject of intense debate. We investigated how alternative tax systems aff ect the breadth, depth, and height of health system coverage.
Methods
We used cross-national longitudin...al fi xed eff ects models to assess the relationships between total and diff erent types of tax revenue, health system coverage, and associated child and maternal health outcomes in 89 low-income and middle-income countries from 1995–2011.
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Karen Grépin examines the pledges made to the Ebola crisis, how much has actually reached affected countries, and the lessons to be learnt
Prompted by the 20th anniversary of the 1993 World
Development Report, a Lancet Commission revisited the
case for investment in health and developed a new
investment frame work to achieve dramatic health gains by 2035. Our report has four key messages, each accompanied by opportunities for action... by national governments of low-income and middle-income countries and by the international community.
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Progress in tuberculosis control worldwide, including achievement of 2015 global targets, requires adequate financing sustained for many years. WHO began yearly monitoring of tuberculosis funding in 2002. We used data reported to WHO to analyse tuberculosis funding from governments and international... donors (in real terms, constant 2011 US$) and associated progress in tuberculosis control in low-income and middle-income countries between 2002 and 2011. We then assessed funding needed to 2015 and how this funding could be mobilised.
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Government health expenditure is a primary means of financing health services in many countries. Research assessing the relation between government health expenditure and development assistance for health channelled to governments (DAH-G) has produced contradictory conclusions. This research aims to... credibly estimate displacement and measure if the DAH-G effect is symmetric or if increases and decreases in DAH-G have distinct effects.
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Promoting and protecting health is essential to human welfare and sustained economic and social development. This was recognized more than 30 years ago by the Alma-Ata Declaration signatories, who noted that Health for All would contribute
both to a better quality of life and also to global peace a...nd security
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Promoting and protecting health is essential to human welfare and sustained economic and social development. This was recognized more than 30 years ago by the Alma-Ata Declaration signatories, who noted that Health for All would contribute
both to a better quality of life and also to global peace a...nd security
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Government spending on health from domestic sources is an important indicator of a government's commitment to the health of its people, and is essential for the sustainability of health programmes. We aimed to systematically analyse all data sources available for government spending on health in dev...eloping countries; describe trends in public financing of health; and test the extent to which they were related to changes in gross domestic product (GDP), government size, HIV prevalence, debt relief, and development assistance for health (DAH) to governmental and non-governmental sectors.
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Timely, reliable and complete information on financial resources in the health sector is critical for sound policy making and planning, particularly in developing countries where resources are both scarce and unpredictable. Health resource tracking has a long history and has seen renewed interest mo...re recently as pressure has mounted to improve accountability for the attainment of the health Millennium Development Goals. We review the methods used to track health resources and recent experiences of their application, with a view to identifying the major challenges that must be overcome if data availability and reliability are to improve.
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This report started with a simple question—“How can we tell how much funding is devoted to global health programs?”—and ended (more than two years later) with an answer that is far from simple. As those who have tried know well, tracking health-related funding is challenging in any setting, ...given the range of public and private sources and the many types of services and programs that fall within the definition of “health sector.” It is made all the more complicated when significant external support from donors and private charities plus in-kind donations of drugs and other inputs are taken into account. The task is made yet harder by inadequate public expenditure management systems in countries where public agencies’ capacity is stretched very thin and by donor accounting structures that are not designed to respond in a timely way
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The Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) was established by World Health Organization Director-General Gro Harlem Brundtland in January 2000 to assess the place of health in global economic development. Although health is widely understood to be both a central goal and an important outcome ...of development, the importance of investing in health to promote economic development and poverty reduction has been much less appreciated. We have found that extending the coverage of crucial health services, including a relatively small number of specific interventions, to the world’s poor could save millions of lives each year, reduce poverty, spur economic development, and promote global security.
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