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and J. M. Cohen

Antonia Braus, Maria Victoria Larrateguy, Angela R. Schug, Johan Willems

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Cyril Caminade, Sari Kovats, Joacim Rocklov et al.

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Murray, C.A.

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Xiaoxu Wu, Yongmei Lu, Sen Zhou et al.

Publication Years

2020-2026

2010-2019

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

Cyril Caminade, Sari Kovats, Joacim Rocklov et al. PNAS (2014) CC

PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9 Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also ... one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. more

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Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti: effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential

Jing Liu-Helmersson , H. Stenlund, A. Wilder-Smith, et al. PLOS One (2014) CC

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu ... re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC. more

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Climate change and communicable diseases: a manual for health workers

World Health Organization. Regional Office for Europe (2011) C_WHO

There is a broad consensus nowadays that the Earth is warming up as a result of greenhouse gas emissions caused by anthropogenic activities. It is also clear that current trends in the fields of energy, development and population growth will lead to continuous and ever more dramatic climate change. ... This is bound to affect the fundamental prerequisites for maintaining good health: clean air and water, sufficient food and adequate housing. The planet will warm up gradually, but the consequences of the extreme weather conditions such as frequent storms, floods, droughts and heat-waves will have sudden onset and acute repercussions. It is widely accepted that climate change will have an impact on the spread of infectious diseases in Europe, which is likely to bring about new public health risks in the majority of cases. Transmission of infectious diseases depends on a number of factors, including climate and environmental elements. Foodborne and waterborne diseases, for instance, are associated with high temperatures. Disease-transmitting vectors (e.g. mosquitoes, sandflies and ticks) are highly sensitive to climate conditions, including temperature and humidity; their geographical distribution will widen as climate conditions change, potentially allowing them to spread into regions where they are not currently able to live. The primary purpose of this manual on climate change and infectious diseases is to raise the awareness and the level of knowledge of health workers at national, regional and local levels in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia on the health risks associated with climate change and infectious diseases. This manual was devel- oped as part of the WHO Regional Office for Europe project, Protecting health from climate change: a seven–country initiative, implemented with financial support from the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. more

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